Daily News Round Up
Tuesday, 08 Jul 2025
- Escalating Global Trade Tensions Weigh on Market Sentiment: President Trump’s renewed imposition of 25% tariffs on imports from Japan and South Korea triggered market jitters, leading to a decline in U.S. stocks and a pause in recent gains. This escalation of trade tensions, coupled with existing tariff pressures, is negatively impacting companies reliant on international trade, notably in the apparel and transportation sectors. (WSJ), (Reuters), (Forbes)
- Economic Growth Concerns Persist Despite Recent Optimism: While the S&P 500 has experienced a recent rally, valuations remain historically high, requiring sustained real GDP growth exceeding 4% to justify current levels. Indicators like the Buffett Indicator and equity concentration suggest overvaluation and heightened risk of an economic downturn, despite the initial positive reaction to recent policy changes. (Seeking Alpha), (Seeking Alpha)
- Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Bank Performance Diverge: The RBA’s decision to hold rates pending further inflation data highlights ongoing uncertainty in global monetary policy. Within the banking sector, while Asian-Pacific banks saw market cap increases in Q2, US bank stocks underperformed broader markets in June. Analyst upgrades and downgrades across various banks (e.g., UBS upgrading Public Service Enterprise Group, William Blair downgrading Tesla) demonstrate diverging outlooks. (CNBC),(Barrons), (Seeking Alpha)
- Sector-Specific Impacts from Tariffs and Regulatory Changes: The apparel retail industry is already feeling the pinch of US import tariffs, with firms cutting earnings estimates. New regulations impacting EV tax credits, coupled with the removal of CAFE fines, pose risks to Tesla’s profitability and prompted a downgrade from William Blair. Conversely, transportation stocks may see a less severe impact than previously feared. (Seeking Alpha), (FMP), (Barrons)
- M&A Activity & Corporate Restructuring Continue: Significant corporate activity is underway, with Capgemini acquiring WNS for $3.3 billion and GE Vernova attracting positive analyst attention ahead of its Q2 earnings. Several companies announced plans to cut costs, and refocus business strategies including Jasper Therapeutics, showcasing an evolving corporate landscape as firms adapt to volatile conditions. (FMP) ,(FMP), (FMP)
What happened yesterday?
Macro
Economic Growth: US stocks are back at historically extreme valuations, with the S&P 500’s equity risk premium extremely thin given current real borrowing costs. To justify these valuations, real GDP growth would need to exceed 4%, a level not seen since the late 1990s and early 2000s. (Seeking Alpha)
Economic Growth: S&P 500 is showing strong signs of overvaluation, with the Buffett Indicator at record highs and equity concentration at levels surpassing the dot-com bubble. Household equity exposure and recession probability models both signal heightened risk of an impending economic downturn impacting the index. (Seeking Alpha)
Economic Growth: Led by favorable reactions to the passing of the BBB that were cheered on by the White House, many saw things getting better last week. These reactions stirred up bullish sentiments, resulting in the S&P 500 Index reaching its first high for the year since February. (Seeking Alpha)
Inflation: Australia’s central bank held its policy rate at 3.85%, saying it needed more time to assess inflation data. The Reserve Bank of Australia said it was waiting for “a little more information to confirm that inflation remains on track to reach 2.5 per cent on a sustainable basis. (CNBC)
Inflation: The U.S. dollar tumbled 10.7% against its global peers through June, making it the worst first half since 1973. Many of the same factors causing weakness — likely will stay on the minds of investors as they seek other avenues for safe havens. (CNBC)
Interest Rates: Kevin Warsh, the former Fed governor considered the most likely replacement for Jerome Powell to lead the Fed, on Monday night articulated his vision for policy. (Market Watch)
Interest Rates: Ultralow rates would leave the bank with little room to lower borrowing costs in response to hard times. (Barrons)
International relations: Exports declined for a second straight month in May in response to higher U.S. tariffs as Europe’s largest economy looks set for another year of little or no growth. (WSJ)
International relations: The S&P 500 retreated 0.8% from its all-time high, and bond yields ticked higher. The Dow industrials fell 0.9%. (WSJ)
International relations: UK farmers have “nothing more to give” as they fear the government will use agriculture to further reduce US tariffs in a trade deal with the White House. (Skynews)
International relations: UK gilt yields quickly stabilized, but not before the delivery of a harsh vigilantes’ wake-up call. It’s not unreasonable logic that something similar might be in the offing for Treasuries. (Seeking Alpha)
Market Sentiment: The dollar weakens, while Treasury yields gain (WSJ)
Policy: The freshly signed OBBBA will significantly increase the U.S. deficit, but higher government borrowing will boost market liquidity in the long run. Despite rising long-term yields and deficit concerns, I see broad stock indexes like the S&P 500 as the best way to capitalize on this environment. (Seeking Alpha)
Trade: Many countries thought they were negotiating in good faith. The White House renewed its “reciprocal” tariff plan anyway, giving countries until Aug. 1 to make offers. (NYTimes)
Trade: A small company in northern Mexico had faced steep competition from China in making straps, plugs, fasteners, grommets, zip ties and clamps. Now, U.S. tariffs have driven a spike in his business. (NYTimes)
Trade: Swiss watch sellers in Lucerne have endured a tough three months since U.S. President Donald Trump piled pressure on the luxury business with the threat of hefty tariffs, reducing interest from tourists who flock to the city in part to shop for watches. (Reuters)
Trade: Here’s the latest on the president levies, some of which he again postponed Monday. (WSJ)
Trade: Trump ratchets up trade pressure (InvestorPlace)
Trade: CNBC’s Jim Cramer told investors that President Donald Trump’s newest tariffs might not have staying power, and he cautioned against doing any major selling. “We no longer believe that the tariff numbers the president’s throwing around are meaningful,” Cramer said, referring to his outlook for the CNBC Investing Club’s Chartable Trust. (CNBC)
Trade: Sellers came into the stock market Monday as Wall Street braced for a potentially volatile week of tariff headlines. (Investors Business Daily)
Trade: President Donald Trump on Monday placed a 25% tax on goods imported from Japan and South Korea, citing persistent trade imbalances with the two crucial U.S. allies in Asia. (Fast Company)
Trade: The president rolled out a new deadline, new rates and letters. (WSJ)
Trade: A broad consensus that markets hate uncertainty more than anything else is being tested on an almost daily basis in 2025. (Kiplinger)
Trade: President Donald Trump sent letters to Japan and South Korea, setting their tariff rates at 25%. (Barrons)
Trade: Donald Trump has warned that all goods from Japan and South Korea will face tariffs of 25% from 1 August. (Skynews)
Trade: Stocks slightly fell Monday in response to Trump sharing his letters to Japan and South Korea, with losses steepening immediately after the announcement. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were all down about 1% as of early Monday afternoon, while stocks of Japanese automakers Toyota and Honda had bigger slides, dropping by 4%. (Forbes)
Trade: US President Donald Trump has announced a sweeping 25% tariff on all imports from Japan and South Korea, set to take effect on August 1, 2025. The move marks a sharp escalation in trade tensions with two of America’s closest allies. (Invezz)
Trade: The U.S. will impose tariffs of 25% on Japan and South Korea beginning on Aug. 1, President Donald Trump announced on Monday in posts on Truth Social. (Fox Business)
Trade: The White House is delaying tariffs ahead of the end of the 90-day pause deadline. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the April 2 tariffs would now go into effect on August 1. (Business Insider)
Trade: President Donald Trump shared letters Monday informing governments in Japan and South Korea that he’s levying 25% tariffs on their imports to the U.S., the first in an anticipated slew of tariff notices the administration is expected to send out before its self-imposed tariff pause ends Wednesday—though the letter suggests the rates could still change again. (Forbes)
Trade: Tokyo and Seoul were staring down the threat of 24% and 25% tariffs, respectively, before the president fired off the letters Monday. (New York Post)
Trade: The United States will impose 25% blanket tariffs on imports from Japan and South Korea starting Aug. 1, President Donald Trump revealed. U.S. President Donald Trump walks after disembarking Marine One as he arrives at the White House in Washington, D.C. (CNBC)
Trade: Trump tariff letters could boost tariff rates back to April 2 levels for almost every country. (Investors Business Daily)
Trade: U.S. stocks are lower in early trading Monday as the Trump administration steps up pressure on trading partners to make deals before a Wednesday deadline. The S&P 500 was 0.3% lower as trading resumed in the U.S. following a holiday-shortened week. The benchmark index remained near its all-time high set last week. (New York Post)
Industry
Banking: Most of the major banks in Asia-Pacific increased their market capitalization in Q2 as falling interest rates attracted investors to bank stocks. Chinese banks continued to dominate their regional peers in size. (Seeking Alpha)
Banking: US bank stocks made gains in June but fell short of the broader markets’ strong performance. The 211 banks in an S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis had a median total return of 4.2% in June, trailing the S&P 500’s 5.1% return. (Seeking Alpha)
Retail: The major apparel retail and manufacturing firms are cutting their earnings estimates and outlining plans to mitigate the impact of US import tariffs. We see evidence of front-loading of inventories, with US seaborne imports of apparel having increased by 14.5% year-over-year in April before reversing in May. (Seeking Alpha)
Transportation: With the freight haulers readying June-quarter reports, analyst Ravi Shanker says the period was probably not as bad as investors think. (Barrons)
Corporate
APA Corporation: Barclays set a price target of $21 for APA Corporation (NASDAQ:APA) on July 7, 2025, representing a potential 6.9% increase from a stock price of $19.65 at that time. TotalEnergies holds a 25% working interest in Block 53, where APA holds a 45% working interest, including the Baja-1 oil discovery. APA’s current stock price is $19.33, reflecting a 1.02% decrease ($0.20 change) with daily fluctuations between $19.25 and $19.825. Over the past year, the stock has ranged from $13.58 to $33.41. APA’s market capitalization is approximately $6.98 billion, and today’s trading volume is 2,010,753 shares. (FMP)
Atlassian Corporation: Atlassian Corporation (NASDAQ:TEAM) is investing in artificial intelligence to improve developer productivity and user adoption. UBS maintains a “Hold” rating for TEAM, which was priced at $216.12 and is currently trading at $216.05, a 1.18% increase of $2.52, with a daily low of $210.91 and a high of $216.66. 94% of Atlassian’s revenue comes from a subscription-based model. Its market capitalization is approximately $56.88 billion, and the stock’s 52-week high is $326 and low is $135.29. The trading volume is 2,101,785 shares. (FMP)
Capgemini / WNS Limited: Capgemini is acquiring WNS Limited (NYSE:WNS) for $3.3 billion in an all-cash deal, representing a 17% premium over WNS’s closing price on July 3 and a 28% premium over the 90-day average share price. The acquisition price is $76.50 per share. This is expected to increase Capgemini’s normalized earnings per share by 4%. WNS, serving over 600 global clients, has a market capitalization of approximately $3.26 billion and a recent trading volume of 20.7 million shares. As of July 7, 2025, WNS stock is priced at $74.75, a 14.08% increase of $9.23, fluctuating between $74.50 and $74.84. The stock was recently downgraded to “Market Perform” by William Blair at a price of approximately $74.76. Law firm Halper Sadeh LLC is investigating the fairness of the sale to ensure shareholder interests are protected. (FMP)
Citigroup Inc: Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) is projected to report Q2 2025 earnings of $1.63 per share, a rise from $1.57 per share year-over-year, with revenue of $20.83 billion, up from $20.14 billion in the same period last year. Morgan Stanley’s Betsy Graseck set a price target of $103, representing a 16.02% potential upside from its current trading price of $88.72 (closing at $88.72 after a 2.3% increase). Citigroup recently completed a $650 million redemption of floating rate notes due in 2026, and currently has a market capitalization of approximately $164.52 billion, with a daily trading volume of 3,354,834 shares. Over the past year, the stock has ranged from $88.85 to $53.51, and today’s fluctuation was between $87.97 and $88.83, closing at $88.09 after a 0.72% decrease of $0.64. The company will release its Q2 earnings on July 15, 2025. (FMP)
Conagra Brands, Inc.: Evercore ISI downgraded Conagra Brands, Inc. (NYSE: CAG) to “Reduce” with a stock price of $20.99. The stock experienced a 0.71% decrease, equating to $0.15, fluctuating between $20.93 and $21.27 today, and showing a 52-week range of $20.26 to $33.24. Conagra plans to remove FD&C colors from its U.S. frozen product line by 2025. The company’s market capitalization is approximately $10 billion, with a NYSE trading volume of 6,100,811 shares. (FMP)
ConAgra Brands, Inc.: Evercore ISI set a price target of $26 for ConAgra Brands (NYSE:CAG) on July 7, 2025, representing a potential increase of 23.87% from its current price of $20.99. UBS lowered its price target from $22 to $21. On July 10th, ConAgra’s stock increased by 2.56%, although it currently has decreased by 0.71% (a change of $0.15), trading between $20.93 and $21.27. Over the past year, the stock has ranged from a high of $33.24 to a low of $20.26. ConAgra’s market capitalization is approximately $10 billion, and its trading volume on the NYSE is 6,100,811 shares. (FMP)
Constellation Brands Inc: Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE:STZ) reported a 2% decline in beer sales, attributed to reduced spending from Hispanic consumers who account for approximately half of the company’s US beer sales. On July 7, 2025, Cowen & Co. maintained a Hold rating for STZ, with a stock price of $171.45. The company reported fiscal first-quarter earnings per share of $3.22, below the consensus estimate of $3.30 but above Bank of America Securities’ estimate of $3.00. Despite the sales decline, Constellation Brands maintained its full-year guidance, citing strong gross margins in its beer segment and reduced SG&A costs. The stock currently trades at $171.06, down 0.73% today, with a market capitalization of approximately $30.26 billion, and a 52-week range of $159.35 to $264.45. (FMP)
DoubleVerify Holdings, Inc.: On July 7, 2025, Craig-Hallum’s Greg Palm set a price target of $20 for DoubleVerify Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:DV), predicting a 29.58% upside from its current trading price of $15.44. The stock is currently trading at $15.38, down 0.23% ($0.035) with daily fluctuations between $15.34 and $15.59. DoubleVerify faces a securities fraud class action lawsuit, alleging failure to disclose shifts in advertising spending between November 2023 and February 2025. Investors have until July 21, 2025, to join the lawsuit. The company’s market capitalization is approximately $2.5 billion, with a 52-week high of $23.11 and a low of $11.52. Today’s trading volume is 743,628 shares. (FMP)
GE Vernova (NYSE:GEV): GE Vernova (NYSE:GEV), a key energy sector player, received a price target of $614 from UBS analyst Amit Mehrotra on July 7, 2025, representing an approximately 18.75% increase from its then-price of $517.04. GEV’s stock closed at $517.04 on an unspecified date, a 2.37% daily increase compared to the S&P 500’s 0.83% gain, the Dow’s 0.77% rise, and the Nasdaq’s 1.02% increase. However, its 3.47% monthly gain trails the Oils-Energy sector’s 5.14% and the S&P 500’s 4.99%. The upcoming earnings report on July 23, 2025, anticipates an EPS of $1.65, a 132.39% increase year-over-year, and quarterly revenue of $8.77 billion, a 6.93% rise. The stock’s 52-week high is $532.59, and its low is $150.01, with a market capitalization of approximately $141.12 billion and a daily trading volume of 1,809,150 shares, with daily price fluctuation between $506.02 and $519.71. (FMP)
Jasper Therapeutics: H.C. Wainwright lowered its price target on Jasper Therapeutics (NASDAQ:JSPR) from $40 to $20 while maintaining a Buy rating, citing program delays and cost-cutting measures. Jasper’s shares dropped over 50% intra-day following an announcement to halt its Asthma Study. The halt is expected to reduce operating expenses by an estimated 25% starting in Q3 2025 compared to Q2 levels. The firm projects Jasper will require approximately $5 million in additional capital around Q4 2025. U.S. launch expectations for chronic spontaneous urticaria (CSU) and chronic inducible urticaria (CIndU) programs have been pushed back to 2030 and 2031, respectively. (FMP)
JetBlue Airways Corporation: UBS initiated coverage on JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU) with a Sell rating and a $3 price target. Analysts anticipate a possible slight beat in Q2, with revenue declines modeled at -6.0% year-over-year compared to a consensus of -6.4%. UBS forecasts Q2 EPS of -$0.31, versus the Street’s -$0.34 estimate. UBS projects a rise in CASM-ex of 6.5% and ongoing quarterly losses through 2024, with only modest EBIT-level profitability possible in 2025, contingent on a meaningful acceleration in revenue metrics. (FMP)
Netflix Inc: Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) was downgraded from “Buy” to “Reduce” by Seaport Global, while Wedbush maintains an “Outperform” rating with a price target of $1,400. The stock currently trades at $1,297.18, having seen a 1.1% increase and reaching approximately $1,300. Year-to-date, the stock has surged over 45%. Netflix added over 41 million subscribers globally in 2024 and has a market capitalization of approximately $552 billion. Today’s trading range has been between $1,279.76 and $1,302.26 with a trading volume of 2,006,224 shares. (FMP)
Nurix Therapeutics, Inc.: Nurix Therapeutics (NASDAQ:NRIX) is expected to report an EPS of -$0.72 and revenue of $16.3 million for the quarter ending May 2025, with a quarterly loss of $0.70 per share predicted by Zacks Investment Research. Key financial ratios include a price-to-sales ratio of 17.20, an enterprise value-to-sales ratio of 16.33, a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.055, a current ratio of 6.26, a negative price-to-earnings ratio of -5.10, and a negative earnings yield of -19.59%. The enterprise value to operating cash flow ratio is -4.80. The quarterly earnings report will be released on July 10, 2025. (FMP)
PepsiCo / Occidental Petroleum: Companies passing the screen for low valuations, rapid dividend growth and business-expansion prospects include PepsiCo and Occidental Petroleum. (Market Watch)
Public Service Enterprise Group: UBS upgraded Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG) to Buy from Neutral and raised its price target from $86 to $97. Analysts cite PEG’s potential for EPS growth of 6.5–7.0% annually over its five-year plan without equity issuance. A potential nuclear power purchase agreement (PPA) for approximately one-third of PEG’s nuclear output at ~$84/MWhr is valued at roughly $7 per share, with full contracting upside potentially exceeding $20 per share. UBS anticipates PEG’s 2027 EPS to reach $4.20. (FMP)
Tesla Inc: William Blair downgraded Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) from Outperform to Market Perform, citing policy changes and declining regulatory credits as risks to demand and profitability. Tesla shares fell over 7% intra-day. The removal of the $7,500 EV tax credit and the elimination of corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) fines are expected to impact Tesla. William Blair estimates over $2 billion in annual profits tied to regulatory credit sales are now at risk. (FMP)
The Bancorp, Inc.: On July 7, 2025, Raymond James upgraded The Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:TBBK) to “Strong Buy” with a stock price of $59.81, currently at $59.76, reflecting a 1.46% increase or $0.86. The stock has traded between $58.43 and $60.20 today, with a yearly high of $65.84 and a low of $38.21. The company’s market capitalization is $2.79 billion, and current trading volume is 124,989 shares. (FMP)
U.S. Bancorp: Raymond James upgraded U.S. Bancorp (USB) to Strong Buy from Outperform and increased the price target from $51 to $57. The upgrade is based on anticipated positive operating leverage of over 200 basis points this year and more than 150 basis points in 2026, which are expected to drive margin expansion and earnings growth. Shares are currently trading at a discount relative to peers, and reaching these profitability milestones could lead to a stock re-rating. (FMP)
UBS / Hess / Chevron: UBS maintains a Buy rating and $173 price target for Hess (NYSE:HES) prior to its Q2 2025 earnings release, potentially its final report as an independent company due to its pending merger with Chevron. Analysts anticipate continued operational strength and positive investor sentiment, particularly regarding a favorable arbitration ruling for the Chevron-Hess deal. UBS forecasts a transaction close in Q3 2025, estimating a 3:1 risk/reward skew based on potential outcomes and maintaining confidence in the deal’s strategic merits. (FMP)
Walmart Inc.: Walmart Inc. (NYSE:WMT) has pledged up to $500,000 for Texas flood relief. Its stock currently trades at $98.89, up $0.53 (0.54%) from the previous session, with a daily high of $99.11 and a low of $97.62. The company’s market capitalization is approximately $789.18 billion, with a 52-week high of $105.30 and a low of $66.67. Trading volume for the day is 6.26 million shares. On July 1, 2025, Executive Vice President Rainey John D sold 1,616 shares at $98.30 each, retaining approximately 628,902 shares. (FMP)
