Daily News Round Up
Friday, 09 May 2025
- Global Trade Concerns are Rising, Dampening Equity Outlook: The flurry of news surrounding tariffs – potential rollbacks, new implementations, and both US-UK and EU-US trade dynamics – is creating significant uncertainty for equity markets. While the US-UK deal provided a temporary lift, the potential for continued tariffs (particularly Trump’s 10% baseline) and the EU’s retaliatory measures ((CNBC)) weigh heavily on corporate earnings forecasts, particularly for sectors like autos ( (Reuters)) and consumer goods ((CNBC)).
- Economic Resilience Remains a Key Theme, Despite Inflationary Pressures: Despite concerns about a potential recession ((Market Watch)) and rising tariffs, underlying economic data indicates surprising strength. Q1 GDP growth, driven by robust consumer and business spending, showed a 3% annualized growth rate in the private sector ((Seeking Alpha)). However, this is tempered by deteriorating consumer expectations regarding finances and employment ( (PYMNTS)), highlighting a potential disconnect between current economic activity and future sentiment.
- Interest Rate Policy Divergence Creates Global Headwinds: The contrasting monetary policies between the US (Federal Reserve holding rates at 4.5% and signaling fewer cuts than expected – (Seeking Alpha)) and Australia (expected rate cuts – (WSJ)) create a complex landscape for global investors. The more hawkish stance from the Fed, coupled with tariff-induced inflation, presents a risk for growth stocks and long-term bonds.
- Corporate Earnings are Mixed, Highlighting Sector-Specific Vulnerabilities: Q1 earnings results released today paint a mixed picture. While some companies like Anheuser-Busch InBev ((FMP)) and Crocs ((FMP)) exceeded expectations, others (Molson Coors, Planet Fitness, Entegris) disappointed, leading to stock declines. This divergence underlines the importance of selective stock picking and sector analysis, with companies exposed to tariffs or facing weaker demand being particularly vulnerable.
- US-UK Trade Deal Offers Limited Broad Market Impact: The recently announced US-UK trade deal, while hailed as a win by both governments ((Skynews)), appears to be more symbolic than fundamentally transformative with a 10% baseline tariff remaining on many goods ((CNBC)). While providing a short-term positive sentiment boost, the broader market impact hinges on resolving trade tensions with China and other major economies, which remain unresolved.
What happened yesterday?
Macro
Economic Growth: A recession could see the S&P 500 fall to 4,600, says Goldman Sachs. (Market Watch)
Economic Growth: The Q1 GDP number, despite being negative, indicates strong demand as it was driven by a spike in imports due to increased consumer and business spending. Excluding the impact of net exports and government spending, the private economy grew at an annualized rate of around 3%, showcasing solid performance. (Seeking Alpha)
Inflation: Americans have a bleak outlook about their financial futures, new Federal Reserve data shows. The latest edition of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, released Thursday (May 8), showed that households had lowered their expectations for both wage growth and finding employment. (PYMNTS)
Inflation: Central banks struggle with stagflation, marked by high inflation, high unemployment, and slow economic growth, limiting their ability to effectively manage the economy. Recent tariffs on China have disrupted supply chains, potentially triggering stagflation by increasing inflation, unemployment, and contracting real GDP. Market optimism hinges on the belief that tariffs will be lifted soon, but delays in resolving trade issues with China could cement stagflation risks. (Seeking Alpha)
Interest Rates: The Reserve Bank of Australia is set to cut rates and keep on cutting until the official cash rate is at a far less restrictive level. (WSJ)
Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.5%, with Powell emphasizing economic uncertainty, particularly due to tariffs, and the potential for future rate adjustments. Powell’s statements suggest fewer rate cuts than market expectations, creating a bearish outlook for stocks, especially growth stocks, and long-term bonds. (Seeking Alpha)
International relations: U.S.-U.K. trade deal, consumer price increases, Coinbase earnings, and more news to start your day. (Barrons)
International relations: Stock markets globally were mixed with U.S. stock futures pretty much flat following Thursday’s bounce after the U.S.-U.K. trade deal. (WSJ)
International relations: DAX rallies on US-UK trade deal optimism and strong earnings reports. Outlook hinges on US-EU trade talks, Fed speeches, and key economic data. (FXEmpire)
International relations: Both countries are hailing this as a good outcome, showing how much the landscape has shifted. (WSJ)
International relations: Sir Keir Starmer was at home in Downing Street, watching Arsenal lose in the Champions League, when he got a call from Donald Trump that he thought presented the chance to snatch victory from the jaws of trading defeat. (Skynews)
International relations: There was Donald Trump flanked by deal negotiators on either side, a ‘shoulders-back’ Team America with Peter Mandelson, UK ambassador, standing as the Brit in the line-up. But then there was the cast member who joined remotely – Sir Keir Starmer. (Skynews)
International relations: The UK and US have hailed a “fantastic, historic day” after striking a landmark trade deal. (Skynews)
International relations: The agreement President Trump announced Thursday still needs to be finalized, but the administration said the deal with one of America’s closest allies would be the first of many. (NYTimes)
International relations: The European Commission has launched a public consultation on a list of 95 billion euros ($107.4 billion) worth of U.S. imports potentially subject to tariff countermeasures. The EU’s executive arm also said it would launch a dispute with the World Trade Organization over the U.S.’ “reciprocal” tariff policy and duties on cars and car parts. (CNBC)
International relations: The deal is being closely watched for signs of what the administration wants from talks with other countries. (WSJ)
International relations: US President Donald Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer jointly announced on Thursday a “historic” trade deal between the two nations. President Trump said the deal would help the UK, a relatively “closed” economy, open up, and “bring it into economic security alignment with the US”. (Invezz)
International relations: President Donald Trump announced a new trade deal with the United Kingdom, calling it the “first in a series of agreements” and an “incredible day for America.” (Fox Business)
International relations: The United States and Britain announced a deal to lower tariffs on some goods on Thursday, with U.S. levies on cars and steel being cut and both sides gaining better access to agriculture markets. (Reuters)
International relations: Announcement makes UK the first country to agree deal with US since Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs in April (The Guardian)
International relations: U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the United States had reached a breakthrough trade deal with Britain. (Reuters)
International relations: President Donald Trump on Thursday said his administration has made a deal with the U.K. on trade, offering a bit of relief to investors who have spent weeks waiting for such agreements. (Market Watch)
International relations: The UK and US have agreed a trade deal – as Sir Keir Starmer and Donald Trump confirmed the announcement during a live phone call. (Skynews)
Policy: The European Union will make a “big push” towards a capital markets union, which experts says would free up funds to finance defence spending as well as digital and green transitions, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Friday. (Reuters)
Policy: Markets today hold steady as traders watch Fed commentary, earnings, and U.S.-China trade signals for direction. (FXEmpire)
Policy: Lately, Wall Street economic commentary has been replete with ominous warnings. President Donald Trump’s tariffs are bound to cause an economic downturn, or perhaps even a recession. (Market Watch)
Trade: Exports from China to the U.S. plunged last month, but Beijing offset that by selling goods elsewhere. (Barrons)
Trade: Even Britain, with its “special relationship” with the U.S., didn’t manage to persuade Trump to drop all tariffs during trade talks. Most goods imported to the U.S. from the U.K. will still be subject to a 10% baseline tariff — which Trump says is the lowest country-specific tariff that will be applied to trading partners. (CNBC)
Trade: Wall Street did as instructed when President Trump told investors to “go out and buy stock now.” Thursday’s rally wasn’t so much a policy endorsement as a standing ovation for lower tariffs. (Seeking Alpha)
Trade: Many other agreements weren’t seen as likely to come together quickly. (WSJ)
Trade: President Trump announces a trade deal with the U. (InvestorPlace)
Trade: The United States is considering a major rollback of tariffs on Chinese imports, with plans underway to cut the current 145% levy to as low as 50%, according to a report by the New York Post. (Invezz)
Trade: Cars, oil , aircraft parts and pharmaceuticals are among the goods crossing the Atlantic between the countries. (WSJ)
Trade: Insiders said the 50%-to-54% range is in keeping with rates that were discussed last month when President Trump met with the bosses of the three biggest retailers in the US. (New York Post)
Trade: President Donald Trump said a new trade deal with the United Kingdom will expand market access for U.S. agricultural products, including beef producers who faced non-tariff barriers. (Fox Business)
Trade: President Donald Trump said that 10% will be the floor for his tariffs on imports from other countries that seek trade agreements with the United States. “Some will be much higher because they have massive trade surpluses and in many cases they didn’t treat us right,” Trump told reporters at the White House. (CNBC)
Trade: Britain’s car industry will see U.S. tariffs immediately slashed to 10% from 27.5%, while levies on steel and aluminium will reduce to zero, the British government said on Thursday, as part of an economic deal with the United States. (Reuters)
Industry
Aluminum: Tariffs are reshaping global trade flows and raising prices for American consumers, but are falling short of their likely goal to revive domestic primary aluminum production. The barrier remains the lack of access to competitively priced, long-term power, according to the industry. (CNBC)
Aviation: Civil helicopter sales worth between €10 million and €20 million could be affected by the tariffs this year and in 2026. (WSJ)
Cannabis: Cannabis-sector lenders offer attractive upside potential. (Market Watch)
Consumer Goods: Ferrero announced a slate of new products, like Nutella Peanut and Ferrero Rocher chocolate squares, ahead of the annual Sweets and Snacks Expo. The European company has been investing in growing its U.S. sales for the last decade through an acquisition spree and introducing its iconic brands to consumers stateside. (CNBC)
Consumer Goods: Italian spirits group Campari , posted a decline in revenue and adjusted operating profit in the first quarter, well below analysts expectations, partly due to the uncertainty about U.S. tariffs in an already struggling sector. (Reuters)
Insurance: The ongoing rotation of the US life insurance industry’s mortgage investments into nontraditional property types have meaningfully altered the composition of their investment portfolios in a variety of ways. Direct investments in mortgage whole loans across all property types rose to new highs on absolute and relative bases in 2024. (Seeking Alpha)
Semiconductors: China’s semiconductor foundry, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), will closely monitor the impact of tariffs on demand, co-CEO Zhao Haijun said on Friday, adding that visibility for the second quarter was not clear at the moment. (Reuters)
Steel: Cleveland-Cliffs closes plants and slows expansion but is still counting on tariffs to increase demand from automakers. (WSJ)
Corporate
Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD): Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) reported first-quarter revenue of $14.55 billion, a 2.6% organic year-over-year increase, exceeding the $14.36 billion consensus estimate. Organic EBITDA rose 5.4% to $5.02 billion, surpassing the projected $4.91 billion. Earnings per share were €0.85, an 11% beat. Global volumes declined by 2.6%, but revenue per hectoliter improved by 5.3%. The company reaffirmed its full-year guidance for 4% to 8% organic EBITDA growth, with the current consensus at 6.1%. (FMP)
Axon / Dave & Buster’s / Robinhood: The stock market rallied Thursday on Trump’s trade deal with the U.K. Axon, Dave and Robinhood are among the best stocks to buy and watch. (Investors Business Daily)
Cannabist Company Holdings Inc: Cannabist Company Holdings Inc. (CBSTF) reported earnings on May 8, 2025, with an EPS of -$0.07, missing the estimated -$0.028. Revenue was $87.44 million, below the anticipated $88.78 million. The company exhibits a negative P/E ratio of -0.30 and a negative earnings yield of -3.31%. CBSTF has a current ratio of 0.85, a negative debt-to-equity ratio of -16.67, a price-to-sales ratio of 0.07, an enterprise value to sales ratio of 1.04, and a negative enterprise value to operating cash flow ratio of -20.44. The stock trades under CBST on Cboe CA, CBSTF on OTCQB, and 3LP on FSE. (FMP)
Coinbase Global, Inc.: Coinbase Global, Inc. (NASDAQ:COIN) is a cryptocurrency exchange platform with a current stock price of $208.92, a 6.29% increase or $12.36 from Wednesday’s closing price of $196.56. Citigroup updated its rating to Neutral on May 8, 2025, with a price target of $208.34. Coinbase is expected to report first-quarter earnings of $2.11 per share and $2.12 billion in revenue, a rise from $1.64 billion in the same quarter last year. The stock traded between $202.81 and $210.45 today and has a 52-week range of $142.58 to $349.75. Coinbase’s market capitalization is approximately $53.24 billion, and trading volume on the NASDAQ was 9,144,353 shares. (FMP)
ConocoPhillips: ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) reported first-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $2.09, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.98, a slight increase from $2.03 in the prior year. The company’s shares increased by 5% intra-day. ConocoPhillips reduced its full-year 2025 capital expenditure guidance to $12.3 billion–$12.6 billion, down from approximately $12.9 billion. Adjusted operating costs were also cut to $10.7 billion–$10.9 billion, from a previous range of $10.9 billion–$11.1 billion. (FMP)
Crocs (NASDAQ: CROX): Crocs (NASDAQ: CROX) reported strong Q1 results, with adjusted earnings of $3.00 per share, exceeding the analyst forecast of $2.49. Revenue reached $937 million, above the consensus estimate of $907.9 million, representing a 1.4% year-over-year increase on a constant currency basis. Gross margin expanded to 57.8%, up from 56.0% in the prior year. Direct-to-consumer revenue grew by 3.5%, while wholesale remained flat. Shares rose over 10% intra-day. The company withdrew its full-year 2025 guidance due to uncertainty regarding global trade policy. (FMP)
enCore Energy Corp.: enCore Energy Corp. (NASDAQ: EU), an energy sector company focused on uranium resources, is scheduled to release its quarterly earnings on May 9, 2025, with a projected EPS of -$0.02 and revenue of $17.16 million. The company has a price-to-sales ratio of 5.42 and an enterprise value to sales ratio of 5.09. Facing a class-action lawsuit, *Zhongjian v. enCore Energy Corp.*, regarding misleading investors between March 28, 2024, and March 2, 2025, investors have until May 13, 2025, to seek appointment as lead plaintiff. Despite the lawsuit, enCore maintains a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.07 and a current ratio of 2.91, indicating a strong liquidity position. (FMP)
Entegris: Entegris (NASDAQ:ENTG) reported Q1 2025 earnings per share of $0.67, below the estimated $0.69, and revenue of $773.2 million, below the anticipated $815.1 million. The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is approximately 40.8, and its price-to-sales ratio is about 3.69. Entegris has a debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 1.06 and a current ratio of around 3.08, with an enterprise value to sales ratio of approximately 4.84 and an enterprise value to operating cash flow ratio of approximately 24.81. (FMP)
Gray Media, Inc.: Gray Media, Inc. (NYSE: GTN) reported an EPS of -$0.23 for the first quarter ending March 31, 2025, beating the estimated EPS of -$0.47. Revenue was $782 million, falling short of the expected $785.2 million. The company reduced outstanding debt by $17 million. Key financial ratios include a price-to-sales ratio of 0.11, an enterprise value to sales ratio of 1.64, an enterprise value to operating cash flow ratio of 7.94, a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.94, and a current ratio of 1.03. The report was released on May 8, 2025. Broadcasting operating expenses decreased year-over-year for the first time since 2020. (FMP)
Kenvue (NYSE:KVUE): Kenvue (NYSE:KVUE) shares increased more than 5% intra-day following second-quarter results exceeding expectations. The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.24, surpassing the $0.23 consensus estimate, and revenue of $3.74 billion, above the $3.68 billion forecast. For fiscal 2025, Kenvue projects total net sales growth of 1% to 3% year-over-year, with organic sales growth between 2% and 4%, offset by a 1% drag from foreign exchange. The company anticipates a decline in adjusted operating income margin compared to the prior year due to tariff costs. (FMP)
Knight Therapeutics Inc: Knight Therapeutics (PNK:KHTRF) reported earnings on May 8, 2025, with an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $0.013, exceeding the estimated $0.003. Revenue was approximately $61.1 million, falling short of the estimated $87.7 million. First quarter 2025 revenue reached $88 million, a 2% increase year-over-year. The gross margin was $34.9 million, representing 40% of revenue, down from 48% last year. The company reported an operating loss of $5.5 million, compared to $2.7 million in operating income the prior year. Key valuation metrics are: Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 139.21, Price-to-Sales ratio of 1.66, and Enterprise Value to Sales ratio of 1.58. The debt-to-equity ratio is 0.062, and the current ratio is 3.57. (FMP)
Krispy Kreme (NASDAQ:DNUT): Krispy Kreme (NASDAQ:DNUT) stock fell over 25% intra-day following disappointing first-quarter results. The company reported a net loss of $33.4 million, with adjusted earnings per share of -$0.05, missing the consensus estimate of -$0.04. Revenue totaled $375.2 million, a 1% decline in organic sales compared to the prior year, and below the $385.11 million forecast. For the second quarter, Krispy Kreme projects revenue between $370 million and $385 million, significantly below the $393.9 million Wall Street estimate. The company’s global points of access increased by 21.4% year-over-year, now totaling 17,982 locations. (FMP)
Molson Coors Beverage Co: Molson Coors Beverage Co. (NYSE:TAP) reported earnings per share of $0.50, missing the estimated $0.78, with revenue of $2.3 billion, below the anticipated $2.39 billion. The company’s stock dropped over 8% on Thursday, May 8, 2025. Molson Coors revised its 2025 financial forecast, now expecting underlying diluted earnings per share to grow in the low single digits and a low single-digit decline in net sales. Financial metrics include a P/E ratio of 10.58, a price-to-sales ratio of 0.94, and an enterprise value to sales ratio of 1.39. This earnings miss was the largest in four years. (FMP)
Planet Fitness (NYSE:PLNT): Planet Fitness (NYSE:PLNT) shares fell over 5% after reporting first-quarter results below analyst expectations. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.59, missing the $0.62 estimate, while revenue reached $276.7 million, falling short of the $279.8 million forecast. Franchise segment revenue grew 11% to $115.2 million, matching projections, and corporate-owned store revenue increased 9.2% to $133.7 million, slightly below the $136.3 million estimate. Same-store sales for franchises rose 6.2%, exceeding the 5.73% estimate. The company ended the quarter with approximately 20.6 million members, a 900,000 increase since year-end 2024, and system-wide same-store sales increased 6.1%. Adjusted EBITDA was $117 million, a 10% increase year-over-year. Planet Fitness now forecasts a 20% increase in capital expenditures, down from a prior 25% forecast. (FMP)
