Daily News Round Up
Friday, 11 Jul 2025
- Tariffs are escalating and pose a growing risk to economic growth and corporate earnings. President Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting August 1st, escalating trade tensions and potentially impacting supply chains and consumer prices ((CNBC)). Additionally, a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports is planned, threatening coffee prices, as around a third of US coffee is sourced from Brazil ( (Reuters)). Helen of Troy saw its stock tumble after attributing a sales miss to tariff impacts ((Market Watch)).
- Despite tariff headwinds, equity markets demonstrate resilience, fueled by optimism around US growth and potential rate cuts. The Dow Jones Industrial Average led gains despite tariff risks ((FXEmpire)). HSBC argues the market underestimates US growth and is too pessimistic about earnings, highlighting a potential upside ((Market Watch)). Furthermore, FOMC minutes suggest a willingness to consider rate cuts this year ( (See It Market)), boosting investor sentiment.
- AI continues to drive significant market interest and stock performance, despite some profit-taking. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) received an upgrade from HSBC with a significantly increased price target ($200, from Hold to Buy) based on optimistic AI revenue projections for FY26 ($15.1B vs. consensus $9.6B) ((FMP)). Goldman Sachs is also boosting price targets across AI-focused stocks ((Barrons)), though some profit-taking was observed in names like CoreWeave, Netflix, and Rubrik.
- Earnings season is yielding a mixed bag of results, unveiling company-specific vulnerabilities. Delta Air Lines rebounded after reinstating its full-year guidance, driving a substantial increase in its stock price ((FMP)). However, Conagra Brands and Helen of Troy experienced significant declines following disappointing earnings reports and lowered guidance, impacted by factors such as inflation and tariffs ((FMP), (FMP)).
- Central bank policy remains a key focus, with diverging approaches between the US and Europe. The ECB appears hesitant to cut rates further after hitting its 2% inflation target ((WSJ)), while the Fed is signaling potential cuts later this year, though internal debate remains ( (See It Market)). The Fed is also continuing to reduce its balance sheet ( (Reuters)).
What happened yesterday?
Macro
Economic Growth: The market is underestimating U.S. growth and is too pessimistic about earnings, says HSBC. (Market Watch)
Economic Growth: In November 2024, our CIOs met to consider the upcoming year and to prepare for the challenges and opportunities of 2025, identifying the key themes they expected to see play out in the markets and the economy. Tariff rhetoric and uncertainty has put significant downward pressure on economic growth so far. (Seeking Alpha)
Economic Growth: The president pushed the Fed to lower rates again, helping power the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite to fresh record closing highs. (WSJ)
Inflation: The next major U.S. inflation report is set to arrive on Tuesday in the form of the consumer-price index for June, and will inform investors as to whether President Donald Trump’s tariff wars with other countries have had a sizable impact on inflation. (Market Watch)
Interest Rates: The European Central Bank should refrain from lowering interest rates again after eurozone inflation hit the 2% target in June, rate setter Isabel Schnabel said. (WSJ)
Interest Rates: The hurdle for another interest rate cut by the European Central Bank is “very high” as the euro zone economy is holding up better than expected and inflation is moored at 2%, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel said in an interview published on Friday. (Reuters)
Interest Rates: With FOMC minutes published today, most Fed members eye rate cuts this year, but are split on what are the next steps. One must cynically wonder which of the members are eyeing Powell’s job. (See It Market)
Interest Rates: Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday the U.S. central bank still has some ways to go in shrinking the size of its holdings, in comments that offer a potential resting size for the ongoing drawdown, while flagging a desire to move the holdings to shorter-dated securities. (Reuters)
International relations: Blunt letters dictating terms posted to social media and changes late in negotiations have left trading partners wondering what President Trump will do next. (NYTimes)
International relations: US stocks hold gains as Dow leads despite tariff risks. Traders watch indices, tech stocks, and August deadlines in a resilient US stock market today. (FXEmpire)
Labour: The number of Americans filing for unemployment last week dropped, even as the number who are unemployed rose to the highest level since November 2021. Reuters reported Thursday (July 10) that these figures suggest that employers are holding on to their current workers even though they have been cautious about adding more employees. (PYMNTS)
Market Sentiment: Q1 2025 buybacks reached a record $293B, with analysts expecting 2025 total buybacks to hit $1T. The top 20 S&P 500 companies continue to dominate buyback activity, although more S&P 500 companies are now repurchasing stock. (Seeking Alpha)
Market Sentiment: The Market Faces A $500 Billion Liquidity Shock (Seeking Alpha)
Policy: Government size is well beyond the growth-optimal threshold. Total government spending has surged to over 35% of GDP, far above the 25% tipping point where studies show additional spending begins to reduce economic growth. (Seeking Alpha)
Policy: Four US policies that could set the tone for markets. Weighing the market impact of the Big Beautiful Bill. (Seeking Alpha)
Policy: Under a proposal put up for comment Thursday, the Fed would allow banks with one “deficient” rating to still be considered well-managed (CNBC)
Policy: The Federal Reserve on Thursday proposed easing how it supervises large banks by making it easier for them to be considered “well managed” and not subjected to additional limitations and scrutiny. (Reuters)
Policy: President Donald Trump’s budget chief said that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell “has grossly mismanaged the Fed.” Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought also suggested Powell had misled Congress about a pricey renovation of the central bank’s headquarters. (CNBC)
Trade: The president said the blanket 35% would be on top of tariffs on certain sectors. That’s higher than the previous 25% rate. (Barrons)
Trade: Markets today face pressure from new Canada tariffs and watch Bitcoin’s record highs as traders assess risk into the U.S. session. (FXEmpire)
Trade: Canada is facing a 35% tariff on imports to the U.S. starting Aug. 1, said President Trump, though some of the country’s goods may still be exempt. (Market Watch)
Trade: Goods that comply with a North American free-trade agreement will be exempt for now, a White House office says (WSJ)
Trade: Trump announces 35% tariffs on Canada starting Aug. 1 (CNBC)
Trade: Brazil has logistical and commercial flexibility to preserve the competitiveness of its oil on the international market if the 50% tariff announced by U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday comes into effect on August 1, experts told Reuters. (Reuters)
Trade: President Donald Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports, which will hit coffee drinkers. The U.S. imports most of its coffee from Brazil. (CNBC)
Trade: Around a third of the coffee consumed in the U.S. comes from Brazil. (Reuters)
Corporate
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): HSBC upgraded Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) from Hold to Buy, with a new price target of $200. AMD’s shares increased by more than 4% following the upgrade. HSBC now forecasts $15.1 billion in AI revenue for FY2026, a 57% increase above the current market consensus of $9.6 billion. This projection is based on higher-than-expected pricing for the MI350 series chips. The MI400 rack architecture is scheduled to debut in 2026. Prior to this upgrade, in January, HSBC had concerns about AMD’s AI GPU competitiveness. AMD shares have risen 14% since its AI Day in June. (FMP)
Advanced Micro Devices Inc: HSBC analyst Frank Lee set a price target of $200 for Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD), representing a potential 38.77% increase from its current price of $144.12. AMD’s stock rose 3.1% to $142.69 following the upgrade from “hold” to “buy,” attributed to its AI chip pipeline, including the MI350 data center processor. The stock has surged 80% from its 52-week lows and has risen 17.9% year-to-date. Trading today saw a 3.78% increase, reaching $143.64, with a trading range of $141.85 to $145.82, and a market capitalization of $232.9 billion. Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a neutral rating and a $140 price target, while the 12-month consensus target price sits at $136.57. AMD will report its fiscal second-quarter results on August 5. (FMP)
Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN): Amazon’s “Buy with Prime” initiative is integrating brands like Dr. Berg Nutritionals to enhance the shopping experience and drive customer loyalty. Executive Chair Jeffrey P. Bezos sold 2,046,582 shares on July 7, 2025, at approximately $223.92 each, while still holding 902,480,530 shares. As of the current date, Amazon’s stock price is $222.66, up 0.054% (0.12), with a daily trading range of $219.70 to $222.79. Over the past year, the stock has ranged from $151.61 to $242.52. The company’s market capitalization is approximately $2.36 trillion, and today’s trading volume is 19,736,405 shares. (FMP)
Byrna Technologies Inc: Byrna Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:BYRN) reported its fiscal second quarter results ending May 31, 2025, on July 10, 2025. Earnings per share (EPS) reached $0.10, doubling the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.05, a 100% earnings surprise, and a slight decrease from the $0.13 EPS reported in the same quarter last year. Revenue was $28.51 million, exceeding the estimated $28.47 million, a significant increase from the $20.27 million reported in the prior-year period. The company’s current financial metrics include a P/E ratio of 38.93, a price-to-sales ratio of 5.56, and an enterprise value to sales ratio of 5.52. The enterprise value to operating cash flow ratio is -169.50, a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.043, and a current ratio of 3.63. Byrna currently operates five company-owned locations averaging $69,000 in sales and plans to open 10 additional store-within-a-store locations in the third quarter, building on its existing 12 with Sportsman’s Warehouse. (FMP)
Coinbase Global: H.C. Wainwright downgraded Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN) from Buy to Sell, reducing the price target to $300. The stock has risen approximately 150% since April, exceeding the Nasdaq’s 35% gain during the same period. Coinbase benefits from over 50% of the reserve income tied to Circle’s USDC, the second-largest stablecoin. Shares currently trade at nearly 56 times estimated 2025 earnings. Analysts anticipate a potential revenue shortfall for the upcoming second-quarter earnings report, due July 31, with their revised estimate being 10% below current consensus. (FMP)
Conagra Brands: Conagra Brands (NYSE:CAG) shares fell approximately 4% after reporting disappointing fourth-quarter and fiscal 2026 results. Q4 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $0.56, below the $0.59 consensus, with revenue declining 4.3% year-over-year to $2.78 billion, missing estimates of $2.85 billion. Organic sales decreased by 3.5%. For fiscal 2026, Conagra projects adjusted EPS between $1.70 and $1.85, below the $2.19 analysts expected, and anticipates flat organic sales with operating margins between 11.0% and 11.5%. The company cites inflation (projected at 4%) and tariffs (potentially increasing cost of goods sold by 3%) as challenges. Fiscal 2025 net sales were $11.6 billion (a 3.6% decline) and adjusted EPS was $2.30 (a 13.9% drop). Net debt was reduced by 4.4% to $8.0 billion, and operating cash flow was $1.7 billion. (FMP)
ConAgra Brands Inc: ConAgra Brands (NYSE:CAG) reported earnings on July 10, 2025, with an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.56, $0.03 below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.59, and a decline from the previous year’s $0.61. Revenue was approximately $2.78 billion, missing the anticipated $2.88 billion. Key financial metrics include a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 28.24, a price-to-sales ratio of 0.79, an enterprise value to sales ratio of 1.48, a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.93, and a current ratio of 0.69. The company is facing challenges from inflation, foreign exchange issues, and supply constraints. (FMP)
Corteva: RBC Capital raised its price target on Corteva (NYSE:CTVA) to $85 from $74, maintaining an Outperform rating. EBITDA estimates for fiscal 2025 are now projected at $3.78 billion, and for 2026 at $4.1 billion. The valuation is now based on 2026 EBITDA at 14 times, up from a 2025 basis. Corteva has a $1 billion share repurchase plan planned for 2025. (FMP)
Delta Air Lines: Delta Air Lines reported earnings on July 10, 2025, with an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $2.10, exceeding the estimated $2.01 and analysts’ expectation of $2.08. Revenue was $15.51 billion, falling short of the expected $16.18 billion but stable compared to the previous year’s $16.65 billion. Delta’s stock surged over 10% in premarket trading due to the reinstatement of its 2025 profit outlook. The company projects third-quarter revenue to be flat or increase by up to 4%, with adjusted EPS between $1.25 and $1.75. Full-year adjusted EPS guidance is between $5.25 and $6.25, exceeding the analysts’ consensus of $5.31. Delta’s P/E ratio is 8.92, price-to-sales ratio is 0.53, and debt-to-equity ratio is 1.44. (FMP)
Delta Air Lines (DAL): Delta Air Lines (DAL) reinstated its full-year guidance, projecting earnings per share between $5.25 and $6.25 and free cash flow of $3 billion to $4 billion. The company reported quarterly revenue of $15.51 billion, slightly above the $15.45 billion forecast, with adjusted EPS of $2.10, surpassing the $2.07 estimate. Shares rose over 11% on Thursday. Delta anticipates third-quarter revenue to be flat to 4% higher year-over-year, alongside the strongest non-fuel cost performance of the year. This occurs during Delta’s 100th anniversary year. (FMP)
Goldman Sachs: Goldman Sachs led a parade of Wall Street firms boosting their price targets on the biggest AI-focused stocks. (Barrons)
Helen of Troy: Helen of Troy’s stock was tumbling toward a 14-year low Thursday, after the company said tariff-related impacts hurt consumer spending and led to a sales miss and a downbeat outlook. (Market Watch)
Helen of Troy (NASDAQ:HELE): Helen of Troy (NASDAQ:HELE) shares decreased by over 22% following a disappointing fiscal first quarter. Adjusted earnings were $0.41 per share, significantly below the anticipated $0.93. Revenue fell 10.8% year-over-year to $371.7 million, compared to a consensus of $400.4 million, with tariffs contributing roughly 8 percentage points to the decline. Organic sales decreased by 17%. The company projects second-quarter revenue between $408 million and $432 million, below the $475 million estimate, and earnings per share between $0.45 and $0.60, falling short of the expected $1.21. (FMP)
Helen of Troy Limited: Helen of Troy Limited (NASDAQ:HELE) reported an EPS of $0.41 on July 10, 2025, significantly below the anticipated $0.91, with revenue of $371.7 million, missing the forecasted $397.1 million. The stock price subsequently declined by 25%. The fiscal 2026 first-quarter report showed an adjusted EPS of $0.41, a 54.95% decrease from the previous year’s $0.99 per share, and a revenue decline of 11% year-over-year to $371.7 million. The company has exceeded consensus revenue estimates in three of the last four quarters. Current valuation metrics include a price-to-sales ratio of approximately 0.30, an enterprise value to sales ratio of about 0.32, a debt-to-equity ratio of around 0.05, and a current ratio of approximately 1.70. Due to ongoing uncertainty, a full-year financial outlook was withheld. (FMP)
Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ): On July 7, 2025, Brandon Gill purchased shares of the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ) valued between $1,001 and $15,000, with the transaction disclosed on July 10, 2025. The Nasdaq-100, tracked by QQQ, has entered a new bull market after falling 23% in April, triggered by President Donald Trump’s tariffs. The current price of QQQ is $554.33, a 0.35% decrease of $1.92, with daily fluctuations between $552.75 and $557.30. Over the past year, QQQ has ranged from $402.39 to $557.63. Its market capitalization is approximately $217.91 billion, and trading volume was 14.12 million shares. (FMP)
Netflix / MercadoLibre / CoreWeave / Rubrik: The Dow industrials led the stock market higher Thursday. But CoreWeave, MercadoLibre, Netflix and Rubrik sold off. (Investors Business Daily)
Northern Technologies International Corporation: On July 10, 2025, Northern Technologies International Corporation (NTIC) reported an EPS of $0.02, a 50% negative surprise compared to the estimated $0.04, and a significant decline from $0.11 in the same quarter last year. The company previously reported a loss of $0.03 when $0.06 was expected, a -150% surprise. Revenue reached $21.5 million, a 4% increase and exceeding the estimated $20.7 million. The ZERUST® industrial segment net sales increased by 7.1%, totaling $14.4 million, while the ZERUST® oil and gas segment declined by 5.3% to $1.3 million, and Natur-Tec® products decreased by 1.2% to $5.8 million. NTIC China sales rose by 27.4% to $4.5 million. Gross profit margin improved to 38.4%. Joint venture operating income decreased by 12.9% to $2.3 million, and operating expenses increased by 7.6% to $9.7 million. Net income attributable to NTIC was $122,000, compared to $977,000 last year. NTIC’s current financial ratios are: P/E ratio of 21.18, price-to-sales ratio of 0.96, debt-to-equity ratio of 0.12, and a current ratio of approximately 2.18. (FMP)
Rhythm Pharmaceuticals, Inc: Guggenheim upgraded Rhythm Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (RYTM) to “Buy” on July 10, 2025, raising the price target from $94 to $119, with the stock currently priced at $89.92. RYTM announced an upsized public offering of 2.06 million shares at $85.00 per share, expected to generate approximately $175 million in gross proceeds, with a 30-day option for underwriters to purchase up to 308,823 additional shares. The stock has fluctuated between $88.99 and $94.50 today, with a 52-week range of $40.61 to $94.80, and a market capitalization of approximately $5.72 billion. Trading volume is 864,895 shares. (FMP)
Salesforce (NYSE:CRM): On July 10, 2025, Cantor Fitzgerald downgraded Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) from “Overweight” to “Cautious,” with the stock priced at $267.07. Salesforce’s annual recurring revenue (ARR) surged 120% year-over-year, exceeding $1 billion in the first quarter of fiscal 2025, driven by its Data Cloud which manages over 22 trillion customer records. Nearly 60% of Salesforce’s top 100 deals in the first quarter included Data Cloud and AI features, and 50% of new Data Cloud bookings came from existing clients. Salesforce’s market capitalization is $255.25 billion, with a current stock price of $267, representing a 1.45% decrease. (FMP)
Seven & i Holdings: Seven & i Holdings (OTC:SVNDY) reported earnings per share of $0.12, exceeding the estimated $0.10, and revenue of approximately $18.96 billion, exceeding the estimated $18.81 billion. First-quarter operating profit increased by 9.7% year-over-year to 65.1 billion yen, driven by overseas convenience store segment performance. The local currency operating profit rose by 22.4%. Fuel gross profit declined by $51.6 million in the first quarter. Key financial metrics include a P/E ratio of 33.17, a price-to-sales ratio of 0.51, an enterprise value to sales ratio of 0.77, an enterprise value to operating cash flow ratio of 9.80, an earnings yield of 3.01%, a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.04, and a current ratio of 0.85. (FMP)
WPP PLC: On July 10, 2025, Deutsche Bank maintained a “Buy” rating for WPP PLC (NYSE:WPP), adjusting the price target from 740 GBp to 550 GBp, despite the stock action being “hold.” WPP’s stock price was $29.36 at the time. Recently, the company appointed Cindy Rose as CEO, following a profit warning which caused a 19% drop in shares. Currently, WPP’s stock price is $29.33, a decrease of approximately -0.034% (fluctuating between $29.25 and $29.63 today), with a 52-week range of $57.37 to $29.12. WPP’s market capitalization is $6.33 billion, with a trading volume of 712,638 shares. (FMP)
