Daily News Round Up
Tuesday, 24 Jun 2025
- Geopolitical Tensions De-escalate, Supporting Risk Sentiment: A tentative ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, coupled with a limited Iranian response to U.S. strikes, has eased immediate geopolitical concerns. This has led to a rebound in equity markets, with major indexes showing gains and oil prices falling sharply, suggesting a reduced risk premium. (FMP), (Seeking Alpha)
- Federal Reserve Signals Potential for Earlier Rate Cuts: Dovish comments from Fed officials, including Vice Chair Bowman and Governor Waller, have increased market expectations for an interest rate cut as early as July. CME FedWatch data now indicates a 23.5% probability of a 25 basis point cut next month, boosting equity valuations, particularly in rate-sensitive sectors. (FMP), (FMP)
- Sector Performance Divergence Driven by Macro and Company-Specific News: While broad market sentiment improved, sector performance was mixed. Tesla saw a significant jump after launching its robotaxi service, while energy stocks were pressured by falling oil prices. Pharma experienced volatility with Sarepta Therapeutics facing scrutiny following patient fatalities linked to its drug, highlighting the influence of both innovation and risk in the healthcare sector. (FMP), (FMP)
- China’s Technological Advancement Poses Competitive Challenge: The unveiling of Meteor-1, China’s first highly parallel optical computing chip, presents a potential competitive threat to established players like Nvidia. This development suggests increased self-sufficiency in AI hardware within China and could influence global semiconductor dynamics, though widespread adoption and scale remain key questions. (FMP)
- Corporate Earnings and Outlooks Mixed: Q3 earnings reports delivered a mixed bag, with companies like Commercial Metals missing estimates despite stable margins while FactSet exceeded revenue expectations. Dow Inc. received a downgrade due to demand concerns and tariff headwinds, underscoring the uneven economic recovery and the sensitivity of certain industries to global trade policies. (FMP), (FMP)
What happened yesterday?
Macro
Commodity Prices: Oil prices leap and fall on headline news (InvestorPlace)
Economic Growth: Hostilities in the Middle East caused some angst in the equity markets, but not as much as one might have expected. The major indexes were only down between -1% and -2% for the week as shown in the table. (Forbes)
Geopolitics: Asian stock markets surged on Tuesday following a tentative ceasefire announcement between Israel and Iran by U.S. President Donald Trump, slated to begin with a 12-hour Iranian pause and a formal end within 24 hours. South Korea’s KOSPI jumped 2.5%, with Samsung Electronics gaining 3.5%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 1.8%. U.S. futures also increased. Rio Tinto and Hancock Prospecting announced a $1.6 billion joint investment to expand an iron ore project in Western Australia. Geopolitical tensions eased after U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and Iran’s missile retaliation targeting a U.S. base in Qatar. Iran’s foreign ministry has not officially confirmed the truce. (FMP)
Geopolitics: U.S. stock futures were choppy Monday morning, with Dow Futures flat, S&P 500 Futures up 10 points (+0.2%), and Nasdaq 100 Futures up 46 points (+0.2%) as of 05:20 ET (09:20 GMT). Last week, all three major indexes closed lower. Brent Crude (August) rose +0.2% to $77.17/barrel, and WTI Crude (August) rose +0.2% to $72.15/barrel. Over 20% of global oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has not officially disclosed retaliation plans but has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz and attack U.S. military bases. The Senate aims to vote on a fiscal package, informally known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” by July 4, including an extension of 2017 tax cuts, increased defense and border security spending, and potential Medicaid spending cuts. Key economic data due Monday includes Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data, followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to Congress starting Tuesday. (FMP)
Geopolitics: Tensions remain high, but a sustained rise in oil prices requires a fundamental reduction in global oil supply. That’s not our base case. (Seeking Alpha)
Geopolitics: U.S. President Donald Trump announced Israel and Iran had agreed to a “Complete and Total CEASEFIRE” that will begin around midnight Tuesday stateside. Iran on Monday launched what its armed forces called a “powerful and destructive missile strike on the United States’ Al-Udeid military base in Qatar. (CNBC)
Geopolitics: Indexes shrugged off escalating tensions in the Middle East on Monday’s stock market. Tesla soared after its robotaxi launch in Texas. (Investors Business Daily)
Geopolitics: Stocks flew, oil sank, and bond yields tumbled on Monday in a highly volatile start to the week, as traders digested Iran’s response to the U.S. strikes on its nuclear sites and a string of dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials. (Reuters)
Geopolitics: On Monday June 23, 2025, Iran launched a missile strike on the U.S. Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar—a retaliatory move following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend. Explosions were reported near Doha, and additional strikes were reported against American assets in Iraq. (Forbes)
Geopolitics: Tensions in the Middle East have escalated further, with Israel and Iran exchanging missile and aerial attacks. Over the weekend, the U.S. became directly involved, targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities. (ETF Trends)
Geopolitics: From trade wars to the threat of an actual kinetic war, seemingly nothing has managed to keep stocks down for long this year. (Market Watch)
Geopolitics: President Donald Trump called for oil prices to remain low on Monday. (Investors Business Daily)
Geopolitics: We are entering into a new chapter of geopolitics in the Middle East. It is likely to create a higher level of uncertainty in the short term. (Seeking Alpha)
Geopolitics: U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities mark a major geopolitical event, but markets have shown only modest, short-term risk-off reactions so far. Equity markets remain resilient, with no evidence of a fundamental shift or increased volatility. (Seeking Alpha)
Geopolitics: Global financial markets are keeping rather contained despite the US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend. “MSCI World” – the index that tracks more than 1,000 large and mid-cap companies from as many as 23 developed countries, is down a tad above 0.32% at the time of writing. (Invezz)
Inflation: U.S. inflation remained surprisingly muted through May, with limited impact from President Donald Trump’s tariffs. But U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities over the weekend could contribute to pressures that may send price gains back to the highest levels in two years. (Market Watch)
Interest Rates: Investor expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have shifted from September to potentially as early as July, following dovish signals from Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, who indicated support for a cut “as soon as our next meeting,” and Fed Governor Christopher Waller. The probability of a 25 basis point cut in July has risen to 23.5%, up from 15% last week, according to CME Fed Fund futures data. President Donald Trump has claimed rate cuts could save “up to $1 trillion per year” on interest payments. The July 30 FOMC meeting is now considered a pivotal moment, with investors monitoring inflation, employment data, updated economic forecasts, and central bank speeches. The article points to 2025 as the timeframe for potential market trajectory impacts. (FMP)
Interest Rates: U.S. equity markets rose on Monday, driven by geopolitical relief and dovish Federal Reserve signals. The S&P 500 increased by 0.94%, closing 56 points higher; the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.94%, adding 184 points; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.89%, up 375 points. Iran responded to U.S. strikes with a missile attack targeting a U.S. airbase in Qatar, firing 14 missiles, of which 13 were intercepted, resulting in zero casualties. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman indicated support for a potential interest rate cut as early as the July FOMC meeting, contingent on subdued inflation. CME FedWatch data currently shows a 23.5% probability of a 25-bps rate cut. Upcoming inflation and jobs data will influence the July 30 meeting’s decision. (FMP)
Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve need not cut interest rates with companies planning to raise prices later this year in response to higher import taxes and with the job market still stable, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told Reuters. (Reuters)
Interest Rates: Norway’s central bank is expected to cut its policy interest rate twice more this year following last week’s surprise reduction in the cost of borrowing from a near 17-year high, a Reuters poll of economists showed on Tuesday. (Reuters)
Interest Rates: Treasury yields are easing — but it isn’t so much a flight-to-safety trade following U.S. strikes against Iran. (Market Watch)
Interest Rates: Her remarks signal a shift within the central bank and highlight growing internal tension over whether the Fed should move quickly to ease policy. (New York Post)
Interest Rates: Is the Federal Reserve suddenly open to cutting U.S. interest rates as early as July? That’s what Wall Street investors want to know when Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies before Congress this week. (Market Watch)
International relations: Amazon plans to invest £40 billion ($54 billion) in the United Kingdom over the next three years. The company currently employs 75,000 workers in the UK, making it among the top ten private employers. Two new fulfilment centres are planned for the East Midlands, opening in 2027, while ongoing developments in Hull and Northampton will create 2,000 jobs each and open in 2024 and 2025, respectively. Amazon is also expanding its AWS cloud infrastructure, building on a previously announced £8 billion data centre investment through 2028. The UK is Amazon’s third-largest market, after the U.S. and Germany. Additionally, Amazon will redevelop Bray Film Studios. (FMP)
International relations: Wall Street took a good look at the weekend’s missile exchange and decided it wasn’t the end of the world – or even the end of the rally. Crude oil tumbled 7.2%, back under $70, as traders priced in what Iran seemed to script: de-escalation. (Seeking Alpha)
International relations: The dollar fluctuated after U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, with Fed Governor Bowman indicating possible rate cuts could be on the table at the central bank’s next meeting. (Fox Business)
Policy: Fed testimony, key sentiment data, and a Mideast ceasefire guide markets today; FedEx earnings loom after the bell. (FXEmpire)
Policy: NATO allies are meeting in the Netherlands on June 24-25 this week. The alliance has reportedly agreed to hike their defense spending to 5% of gross domestic product by 2035. (CNBC)
Policy: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell heads to Capitol Hill this week, with testimony to Congress kicking off Tuesday morning as Powell presents the Fed’s monetary policy report. Multiple White House officials have cranked up the heat on Powell to start lowering rates, and he’s now faced with two key Fed officials who have spoken out to say they could favor a cut in July. (CNBC)
Policy: The Federal Reserve announced on Monday it was directing its supervisors to no longer consider so-called “reputational risk” when examining banks, scrapping a metric that had been a focus of industry complaints. (Reuters)
Policy: US stocks rose as markets shrugged off Iran strike news. Tech and crypto rallied, oil steadied, and Fed rate cut signals supported bullish sentiment. (FXEmpire)
Trade: The first salvo has been withstood. The Liberation Day surprise threw the markets for a loop like a haymaker to a complacent champion, and they played rope-a-dope for a little bit while trying to see what was next and how to adjust. (ETF Trends)
Industry
Real Estate: The Trump Organization said on Monday it had repaid a $160 million loan on the 40 Wall Street office tower in Manhattan, of which analysts estimate about $114 million was outstanding. (Reuters)
Semiconductors: Chinese researchers have unveiled Meteor-1, the world’s first highly parallel optical computing chip, achieving a theoretical 2,560 TOPS at 50 GHz. This performance matches NVIDIA’s RTX 4090 and approaches the RTX 5090’s expected 3,352 TOPS. Meteor-1 utilizes a multi-wavelength design to process over 100 tasks in parallel, addressing limitations of traditional electronic GPUs. Developed by the Shanghai Institute of Optics and Fine Mechanics and Nanyang Technological University, it represents China’s push for indigenous AI hardware, potentially enabling exascale AI workloads in data centers and reducing associated cooling and power costs. (FMP)
Corporate
Alibaba Group: Alibaba’s Hong Kong-listed shares rose 2.1% to HK$113.10 following reports of integrating its food-delivery arm, Ele.me, and travel platform, Fliggy, into its core e-commerce business. Citi maintains a Buy rating with a HK$165 price target, citing strong retail trends and a robust 6.18 shopping festival performance. The move aims to boost average revenue per user and allow for capital reallocation to R&D, logistics, and marketing. (FMP)
AMD: Melius Research upgraded Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) from Hold to Buy, increasing the price target from $110 to $175. AMD’s stock experienced volatility, ranging from $135 to $211 in 2024 and falling to $78 in 2025. Melius anticipates rising earnings estimates through 2028 and projects AMD’s earnings power could exceed $8 per share within two years. (FMP)
Amrize Ltd (OTCBB: AMRZ): Morgan Stanley initiated coverage of Amrize Ltd (OTCBB: AMRZ) with an Overweight rating and a $62.00 price target, citing a strategy of bolt-on acquisitions and strong free cash flow. Amrize has demonstrated a 13% Revenue CAGR and a 16% EBITDA CAGR since 2021, fueled by 17 acquisitions. Projected cumulative free cash flow is $7.5 billion between 2025 and 2028. The company currently maintains a less than 1x Net Debt/EBITDA ratio. As the 5th largest U.S. aggregates player, Amrize holds a 3% share of the residential roofing market. Morgan Stanley anticipates 2% annual bolt-on growth in their base case, and projects a 15% EBITDA CAGR from 2025-2030 under a 1.5x leverage scenario. (FMP)
AO Smith: JPMorgan initiated coverage on AO Smith (NYSE: AOS) with a Neutral rating and a $70 price target. The company holds a leadership position in North American residential and commercial water heaters, with 80-85% of demand driven by replacements. Residential water heater lifecycles average 14 years, while commercial systems average 5 years, contributing to stable aftermarket sales. JPMorgan’s valuation considers AO Smith’s steady margins and predictable cash flow, noting a mature, fully penetrated market. Investors can track analyst price targets and financial ratios using provided Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) APIs. (FMP)
AstraZeneca: AstraZeneca and Daiichi Sankyo received FDA approval for Datroway, an antibody-drug conjugate (ADC), to treat advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in patients who have undergone prior therapy. This is the drug’s first U.S. indication beyond breast cancer and marks the inaugural TROP2-targeted ADC approved for lung cancer. The approval is for patients with EGFR-mutated NSCLC who have exhausted existing treatments and is based on positive Phase II/III trial results. The collaboration between AstraZeneca and Daiichi Sankyo, initially established with Enhertu in breast cancer, is underpinned by a $6 billion agreement from 2020. (FMP)
Commercial Metals (CMC): Commercial Metals (CMC) reported fiscal third-quarter adjusted earnings of $0.74 per share, below the $0.84 analyst forecast. Revenue was $2.02 billion, below the $2.05 billion estimate, down from $2.34 billion year-over-year. Net income decreased to $83.1 million from $119.4 million in the prior year. Steel product metal margins in the North America Steel Group ended the quarter above $499 per ton. The Emerging Businesses Group’s adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 20.7% year-over-year. The “Transform, Advance, Grow” initiative is expected to deliver an annual EBITDA run-rate benefit exceeding $100 million. (FMP)
Commercial Metals Company: CMC reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.74 on June 23, 2025, missing the estimated $0.85 by 12.94% and declining from $1.02 in the same quarter last year. Revenue for the quarter ending May 2025 was $2.02 billion, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.01 billion by 0.49%, but down 2.8% from $2.08 billion in the prior year. The company’s P/E ratio is approximately 76.45, and its price-to-sales ratio is about 0.72. CMC has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.30 and a current ratio of approximately 2.82. (FMP)
Dow Inc: BMO Capital Markets downgraded Dow Inc. (NYSE: DOW) shares from Market Perform to Underperform, reducing the price target to $22, implying an -11% total return. Pre-market shares are down nearly 2%. Key concerns include weak demand in Packaging & Specialty Plastics, Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure, and Performance Materials, alongside tariff headwinds and structural oversupply from China. BMO cut its Q2 EBITDA forecast to $734 million from a Street estimate of $908 million, and lowered its Q3 forecast to $848 million versus a $1.13 billion consensus. The FY2026 EBITDA projection was revised to $3.94 billion, compared to the $5.02 billion consensus. BMO also highlighted a heightened probability of a dividend cut if macro headwinds persist. (FMP)
Exxon Mobil: TD Cowen raised its price target on Exxon Mobil (XOM) to $128 from $120, maintaining a Buy rating. The firm highlights Exxon’s strategic differentiation and improved earnings visibility, noting a move towards an industrial equity model. Synergy potential from the Pioneer Natural Resources acquisition is better than expected. A ruling in the Hess deal is anticipated within the next 90 days. The Baytown hydrogen project’s progress is regulatory-dependent. TD Cowen considers Exxon a Top Pick, and their valuation uses a net present value model of free cash flow with 2030 as the terminal year. (FMP)
FactSet Research Systems: FactSet Research Systems (NYSE:FDS) reported fiscal third-quarter adjusted earnings of $4.27 per share, slightly below the $4.30 consensus. Revenue reached $585.5 million, exceeding forecasts of $580.54 million, representing a 5.9% year-over-year increase. Organic revenue grew by 4.4% to $577.2 million. For fiscal 2025, FactSet reaffirmed its guidance projecting adjusted EPS of $16.80 to $17.40 and revenue between $2.305 billion and $2.325 billion. (FMP)
NuScale Power: Citi initiated coverage of NuScale Power (NYSE:SMR) with a Neutral rating and a $46 price target. The company’s 77MW small modular reactor design is already approved. Citi cautions against the company’s elevated valuation and execution risk, noting the current share price reflects expectations for nearly 50GW of installed capacity by 2040. (FMP)
Nvidia Inc: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has begun selling shares under a structured disposal plan valued at $865 million, as detailed in SEC filings. He recently sold 100,000 shares, generating $14.5 million in proceeds. This sale is part of a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan initiated earlier this year and represents less than 1% of his total holdings. Huang still retains over 900 million shares, approximately 4% of Nvidia’s outstanding stock. (FMP)
Roblox (NYSE:RBLX): Roblox (NYSE:RBLX) stock has nearly doubled in value since April 2025 and is currently trading at $103.71, approaching its 52-week high of $104.63. The stock reached a high of $104.63 on June 22, 2025 and a low of $101.34 the same day. Its 52-week low is $34.62. The company has reported over 20% quarterly revenue growth year-over-year for seven consecutive quarters. UBS updated its rating to “Buy” with a price of $102.09 on June 22, 2025. Roblox’s market capitalization is approximately $70.34 billion with a trading volume of 3.81 million shares. The game “Grow a Garden” has contributed to the company’s recent growth. (FMP)
Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc.: Pomerantz LLP is investigating Sarepta Therapeutics (NASDAQ: SRPT) for potential securities fraud related to the Duchenne muscular dystrophy drug, Elevidys, following two patient fatalities due to acute liver failure. The first fatality on March 18, 2025, caused a $27.81 per share drop (27.44%), closing at $73.54. A second fatality on June 16, 2025, led to a $15.24 per share drop (42.12%), closing at $20.94, and halted Elevidys distribution for non-ambulatory patients and suspended its clinical trial. Cowen & Co. downgraded Sarepta from “Buy” to “Hold” on June 18, 2025, when priced at $20.77, while Wells Fargo adjusted its price target from $100 to $75. The stock currently stands at $19.25, a 4.13% decrease ($0.83 change) with a daily range of $18.70-$19.76; its 52-week range is $18.30-$168.31, and its market capitalization is approximately $1.89 billion, with a trading volume of 4,203,125 shares. (FMP)
Tesla Inc: U.S. stock futures rose Monday evening following President Trump’s declaration of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, described as a “12-Day War,” and dovish remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman. As of 00:10 GMT, S&P 500 Futures increased by 0.6% to 6,110.20, Nasdaq 100 Futures rose 0.8% to 22,238.75, and Dow Jones Futures climbed 0.4% to 43,081.0. Monday’s closing saw the S&P 500 up 1.0%, the NASDAQ Composite up 0.9%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.9%. Tesla (TSLA) surged over 8% after launching its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas. The ceasefire involves a 12-hour pause by Iran, followed by reciprocation by Israel, with a formal cessation of hostilities within 24 hours. Iran’s missile retaliation against a U.S. base in Qatar resulted in no casualties. Investors are now awaiting Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress, PMI data releases, and further developments from Iran or Israel. (FMP)
Tesla Inc: UBS raised its price target for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) to $215 from $190 while maintaining a Sell rating. UBS estimates a successful robotaxi scenario, contingent on technology, regulatory approval, and deployment, could result in a 2.3 million vehicle fleet by 2040, generating approximately $200 billion in annual revenue. The modeled robotaxi segment is valued at $99 per share. The firm believes much of the anticipated growth from autonomy is already reflected in Tesla’s current valuation. (FMP)
