Daily News Round Up
Thursday, 03 Jul 2025
- Macroeconomic Signals Present a Mixed Picture Ahead of Key Data. Investors are awaiting the June jobs report and Fed signals, with markets exhibiting steadiness despite recent weaker-than-expected ADP payrolls data (-33,000 jobs, significantly below the expected +115,000) (Seeking Alpha). This uncertainty is compounded by global economic concerns, including weak data from China and ongoing tariff anxieties, further fueling market volatility and impacting sectors reliant on international trade.
- Shifting Interest Rate Expectations are Driving Market Sentiment. A potential softening in the labor market, coupled with expectations of a drop in interest rates, is increasing investor interest in big banks (Barrons). This is alongside fears regarding Federal Reserve independence, highlighted by a UBS survey showing two-thirds of reserve managers see political risk at the Fed (Reuters), and comments from President Trump calling for Powell’s resignation (Business Insider).
- Geopolitical Developments Offer Limited Upside, Trade Deals Provide Isolated Boosts. The announcement of a trade deal between the US and Vietnam provided a short-term lift to market sentiment (CNBC), but broader geopolitical uncertainties persist, evidenced by consolidation in the Singapore dollar ahead of US payrolls data (WSJ). While IPO activity is increasing in Hong Kong ($12.8 billion in H1), concerns surrounding China’s economy and trade relations continue to weigh on investor confidence in the region.
- Corporate Earnings Present a Mixed Bag and Raise Sector-Specific Concerns. Q1 earnings from Constellation Brands (STZ) missed expectations despite a revenue increase of 6% year-over-year, leading to a stock price decrease (FMP). Conversely, UniFirst (UNF) beat EPS estimates but saw a stock dip, demonstrating that exceeding expectations doesn’t guarantee positive market reaction. Several companies, including Oscar Health (OSCR) and Block (XYZ), received analyst rating changes/initiations, highlighting ongoing scrutiny and differing viewpoints on individual stock prospects.
- AI and Labor Market Disruptions Remain a Key Theme. Ford’s CEO predicted that AI could replace half of all white-collar workers (WSJ), a commentary aligned with the trends amongst federal agency layoffs with applications increasing by 150% from workers in software development and data analysis (CNBC). This underscores the increasing potential for labor market disruption and its influence on future economic growth and equity valuations, particularly in sectors heavily reliant on traditional office work.
What happened yesterday?
Macro
Economic Growth: Markets today await June jobs data and Fed signals in a holiday-shortened session, with futures steady near highs ahead of key economic releases. (FXEmpire)
Economic Growth: DAX eyes 24,000 as a US-Vietnam trade deal lifts sentiment. All eyes now turn to ECB minutes, Fed bets, and US jobs data for direction. (FXEmpire)
Economic Growth: U.S. Treasury yields were lower on Thursday as investors awaited June’s big jobs report and monitored progress on President Donald Trump’s spending bill. (CNBC)
Economic Growth: EV and tech losses drag Hang Seng Index lower amid weak China data and tariff concerns. Can Beijing’s stimulus plan lift market momentum? (FXEmpire)
Economic Growth: The S&P and Nasdaq notched fresh record highs Wednesday because apparently the best time to chase stocks is when jobs disappear, tariffs rise, and Congress lights the budget on fire. ADP’s June payrolls print showed a 33,000 job decline, well below the expected 115,000 gain, and the worst reading since March 2023. (Seeking Alpha)
Inflation: The cooling trend could reassure Turkey’s central bank, which held its key rate in May after hiking it in April. (WSJ)
Inflation: Annual inflation picked up in June but the possibility of the Swiss National Bank pushing rates below zero later this year remains. (WSJ)
Interest Rates: Laxer regulations and a likely drop in interest rates is spurring investor interest in the big banks. (Barrons)
Interest Rates: The Treasury market seems to be in a precarious equilibrium. (Barrons)
Interest Rates: Weaker labor-market data this week could bolster the case for the Federal Reserve to resume rate cuts soon. (Market Watch)
Interest Rates: Investors will come back from the Independence Day holiday to the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting minutes for May, as well a handful of economic indicators. (Schaeffers Research)
International relations: The Singapore dollar consolidated against its U.S. counterpart ahead of the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report due later today. (WSJ)
International relations: New listing volume in Hong Kong Stock Exchange jumped around eight times to $12.8 billion in the first half of this year. The frenzy came after years of lackluster IPO activity in the city. (CNBC)
International relations: CNBC’s Jim Cramer laid out two broad ideas that he thinks are driving market action. He said it’s important for investors to understand trends and impactful current events. (CNBC)
International relations: President Donald Trump announced Wednesday he has struck a trade deal with Vietnam, calling it a “Great Deal of Cooperation between our two Countries.” (Fox Business)
Labour: Economists expect a modest slowdown in jobs added, and a slight pickup in unemployment (WSJ)
Labour: Ford chief predicts AI will replace “literally half of all white-collar workers.” (WSJ)
Labour: Job growth has ebbed as businesses grapple with trade policy uncertainty, but companies have not yet resorted to widespread layoffs, keeping the labor market afloat. (New York Post)
Labour: While the impact from the DOGE layoffs has been fairly muted so far in relation to total job growth, recent trends show that’s about to change. Applications from workers at federal agencies have soared by 150%, a trend that has been particularly acute at knowledge-work jobs such as data analytics, marketing and software development. (CNBC)
Labour: Thursday’s employment report could result in a Trump tantrum about interest rates if it comes in weak. (Market Watch)
Labour: Did the U.S. economy really lose jobs in June for the first time since the pandemic? Payroll king ADP says yes, but investors ought to take its report with a very large grain of salt. (Market Watch)
Policy: Prime Minister Keir Starmer was apparently unaware of his finance minister’s distress as she sat behind him, tears streaming down her face, in the House of Commons. The government insisted it was a “personal matter” that had upset Rachel Reeves but speculation mounted that she could be sacked, or could step down. (CNBC)
Policy: Two in three reserve managers fear Federal Reserve independence is at risk and nearly half think the rule of law in the United States may deteriorate enough to influence their asset allocation significantly, UBS Asset Management said in a survey on Thursday. (Reuters)
Policy: The Trump-Jerome Powell feud continues, this time with Trump calling on Powell to resign immediately. Trump amplified calls for Congress to investigate Powell on the Fed’s headquarters renovation. (Business Insider)
Policy: Michael Gibson, director of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s supervision and regulation division, has accepted a voluntary buyout and will retire at the end of this month after 33 years at the central bank, according to an email from Gibson to Fed officials seen by Reuters. (Reuters)
Policy: As White House officials including the president escalate attacks on the central-bank chair, the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency alleges Powell misled lawmakers about a renovation of Fed headquarters in Washington. (Market Watch)
Policy: After a volatile April marked by sharp losses due to renewed tariff concerns, the stock market mounted an impressive rebound through mid-April, May and June. President Trump’s much-anticipated “Big, Beautiful Bill” is making headlines for its sheer size and ambition with a deadline set for July 4th for its passage. (Seeking Alpha)
Policy: A federal appeals court on Wednesday revived part of a lawsuit accusing the Federal Reserve Bank of New York of illegally firing two longtime employees who claimed religious objections against COVID-19 vaccinations. (Reuters)
Trade: Vietnam strikes trade deal with America. The S&P 500 rises to close at a fresh record. (CNBC)
Trade: Ahead of a key July 9 tariff deadline, President Trump said the U.S. has reached a trade deal with Vietnam. (Kiplinger)
Trade: President Trump said American goods would enter Vietnam duty-free in exchange for lower tariffs. (WSJ)
Trade: The president said he had agreed to initial trade terms with Vietnam, the second country to strike a limited deal after Mr. Trump threatened steep tariffs. (NYTimes)
Trade: President Trump says American goods will enter Vietnam duty free in exchange for lower tariffs. (WSJ)
Corporate
Amazon.com Inc: Amazon’s stock has increased by 2.84% over the past five trading sessions and 6.68% over the last month, with a year-to-date increase of 0.11%. From August 5, 2024, to February 4, 2025, the stock gained approximately 50.33%, followed by a 9% decline. The current stock price is $221.22, up 0.34% today, having fluctuated between $219.06 and $221.60. Over the past year, the stock ranged from $151.61 to $242.52. Jeff Bezos sold over 3.3 million shares on July 1, valued at nearly $737 million. JPMorgan raised the price target to $240 from $225, maintaining an overweight rating. Cleo Fields invested between $100,001 and $250,000 in Amazon on June 30, 2025. Amazon’s market capitalization is approximately $2.35 trillion, with a trading volume of 13.56 million shares today. The company aims for over $100 billion in operating income in the next two years, driven by AWS. (FMP)
Apple Inc: Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) faces a securities fraud class action lawsuit in the United States District Court for the Northern District of California, concerning alleged misleading statements regarding Siri’s AI features and potential impact on iPhone 16 sales, affecting investors who acquired securities between June 10, 2024, and June 9, 2025. J.P. Morgan has set a price target of $230, representing a potential increase of approximately 14.11% from a previous trading price of $201.56. The current stock price is $211.60, a 1.82% increase or $3.78, with daily fluctuations between a low of $208.14 and a high of $213.34. Over the past year, the stock has ranged from a high of $260.10 to a low of $169.21. Apple’s market capitalization is approximately $3.16 trillion, and today’s trading volume is 46.3 million shares. Investors have until August 19, 2025, to seek lead plaintiff appointment. (FMP)
Apple Inc: On June 30, 2025, Cleo Fields purchased Apple Inc. shares valued between $50,001 and $100,000, with the transaction disclosed on July 2, 2025. Apple faces multiple class action lawsuits alleging violations of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, specifically sections 10(b) and 20(a), and Rule 10b-5, targeting investors who purchased securities between June 10, 2024, and June 9, 2025. Investors have until August 19, 2025, to request Lead Plaintiff appointment in these suits. Despite the lawsuits, Apple’s current stock price is approximately $211.99, up 2.01%, with a daily trading range of $208.14 to $213.34 and a market capitalization of $3.17 trillion, with a trading volume of 29.56 million shares. (FMP)
Block: Compass Point initiated coverage on Block (NYSE:XYZ) with a Buy rating and an $80 price target, citing undervaluation. Analysts estimate Block currently trades at around 10x EV/EBITDA or lower, while a comparable company, Chime, is assigned 20x 2027 EBITDA. Compass Point’s sum-of-the-parts analysis assigns a 15x multiple on Cash App’s adjusted EBITDA (including stock-based compensation) and a 12.1x multiple on Square’s 2026 adjusted EBITDA. They project Cash App gross profit acceleration due to the expansion of Cash App Borrow lending products. Their 2026 forecasts are 3% ahead of consensus on gross profit and 10% above on adjusted EBITDA. Compass Point anticipates a reacceleration in Block’s gross profit growth starting in the second half of 2025. (FMP)
Constellation Brands (STZ): Constellation Brands (STZ) shares increased by over 3% intra-day following the release of its first-quarter earnings report. Net earnings attributable to common shareholders decreased to $3.22 per share, missing the expected $3.41. Net sales rose 6% year-over-year to $2.52 billion, falling short of the $2.56 billion consensus forecast. The company reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 earnings outlook of $12.60 to $12.90 per share. The guidance anticipates the impact of U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, and potential headwinds from Canadian duties imposed in March affecting the wine and spirits segment. (FMP)
Currys: Shares in electricals retailer Currys rose strongly after it said “resilient” consumer spending in the UK helped it beat profit forecasts for the last financial year. (Forbes)
Netflix Inc: Goldman Sachs increased its price target for Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) to $1,140 from $1,000, maintaining a Neutral rating. The revision is based on a strong content lineup expected in the second half of 2025 and anticipated stable user engagement and monetization. Ahead of Netflix’s Q2 2025 earnings, key debates involve the timing and impact of price increases, competition from platforms like YouTube, Peacock, TikTok, and Meta, and the effect of the anticipated content slate on subscriber engagement and retention. Goldman anticipates consumption and retention to remain resilient but acknowledges ongoing uncertainty regarding competitive pressures and pricing dynamics. (FMP)
Oracle: BMO Capital raised its price target on Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) to $245 from $235, maintaining an Outperform rating. The firm anticipates Oracle may need to raise new capital in fiscal 2026 or 2027 due to significant capital expenditure requirements linked to cloud infrastructure and AI investments. Oracle’s ongoing dividend commitments and share buybacks are also expected to pressure cash flows. BMO views any potential capital raise as manageable, though it could modestly impact earnings per share (EPS) through dilution. Only slight adjustments were made to Oracle’s estimates, reflecting continued confidence in the company’s growth prospects in cloud and AI. (FMP)
Oscar Health (OSCR): Barclays initiated coverage on Oscar Health (OSCR) with an Underweight rating and a $17 price target, citing policy risks that could impact its financial goals. Oscar’s new leadership aims for over $2.25 Earnings Per Share (EPS) by 2027, driven by 500 basis points of margin expansion (70 bps from improved Medical Loss Ratio (MLR) and 400-500 bps from SG&A leverage). Since June 2024, shares have increased by more than 50%. Barclays’ 2027 EPS estimate of $1.28 is 25% below the consensus, and the Underweight rating reflects concerns about regulatory and reimbursement uncertainties. (FMP)
PodcastOne: PodcastOne (NASDAQ:PODC) will release quarterly earnings on July 3, 2025, with an estimated EPS of -$0.04 and projected revenue of $14.9 million. The company’s financial metrics include a negative P/E ratio of -11.27, a price-to-sales ratio of 1.38, an enterprise value to sales ratio of 1.37, a significantly negative enterprise value to operating cash flow ratio of -244.00, and an earnings yield of -8.87%. PODC has a current ratio of 1.18, and boasts over 3.9 billion total downloads and a community of 200 top podcasters, distributing content across platforms like YouTube and Spotify, achieving over 1 billion monthly impressions. (FMP)
Saratoga Investment Corp.: Saratoga Investment Corp. (SAR) is projected to report earnings per share of $0.72 for its quarterly earnings release on July 8, 2025, a decrease from $1.05 year-over-year. Revenue is expected to be $32.8 million, down from $38.68 million in the prior year. SAR offers a 12.1% dividend yield, but net investment income does not fully cover payouts, potentially leading to a NAV decline. The company’s debt-to-equity ratio is 1.86, with a P/E ratio of 12.48, a price-to-sales ratio of 4.11, and an enterprise value to sales ratio of 6,188.69. The current ratio is 0.28. (FMP)
UniFirst (NYSE:UNF): UniFirst (NYSE:UNF) shares decreased over 3% despite reporting third-quarter adjusted EPS of $2.13, exceeding the $2.10 consensus. Revenue reached $610.8 million, a 1.2% year-over-year increase, slightly below the $614.5 million estimate. Net income rose 4.3% to $39.7 million, compared to $38.1 million a year prior. Core Laundry Operations revenue grew 0.9% to $533.2 million, with 1.1% organic growth; Specialty Garments revenue increased 0.5% to $47.8 million, and the First Aid segment grew 9.1%. UniFirst lowered projected costs for key initiatives to $7.5 million for fiscal 2025 and raised full-year earnings guidance to $7.60–$8.00 per share, maintaining its revenue outlook of $2.422–$2.432 billion. (FMP)
