Daily News Round Up
Friday, 27 Jun 2025
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- Equity markets are navigating a shifting macroeconomic landscape marked by slowing growth and persistent inflation. Recent data indicates a contraction in U.S. GDP (-0.5% in Q1) alongside slowing consumer spending (0.5% expansion), raising concerns of a potential recession despite initial optimism. Simultaneously, inflation remains a key concern, with the Federal Reserve facing pressure from tariffs pushing prices higher, while the ECB appears on track to meet its 2% target.
- The technology sector is experiencing a resurgence, particularly within semiconductors, but faces headwinds from broader macroeconomic conditions. Semiconductor stocks are leading market gains, fueled by demand for AI-related chips (Micron’s HBM sales up nearly 50% sequentially), yet this optimism is tempered by stagflation risks and high valuations (S&P 500 Shiller PE above 37).
- Interest rate expectations are diverging between market forecasts and Federal Reserve projections, adding uncertainty to equity valuations. Markets anticipate more aggressive rate cuts than the Fed currently signals, partly due to speculation about a potential change in Fed leadership next year. Mortgage rates have fallen, providing some relief, but overall interest rate policy remains a key driver of market sentiment.
- Corporate earnings are showing signs of slowing growth, potentially impacting equity valuations. Corporate profits stalled in Q1, with a marginal increase of 0.1%, suggesting a weakening earnings environment amid inflationary pressures and evolving tariff policies. Several companies (Acuity Brands, McCormick, MillerKnoll) reported mixed earnings, indicating a nuanced picture across different industries.
- Geopolitical and policy risks continue to influence investor sentiment, despite recent market rallies. Uncertainty surrounding potential changes to U.S. trade policies, potential for a shift in Fed leadership, and ongoing international conflicts are creating a volatile environment. While markets have shown resilience, investors remain wary, as evidenced by concerns about inflated valuations and the potential for a market correction.
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What happened yesterday?
Macro
Economic Growth: A veteran stock-market strategist says the stock market will get hit by a coming recession — it not a current one — as traders are now fully putting to the side worries over tariffs, taxes, war and the economy. (Market Watch)
Economic Growth: Consumer spending — the engine that drives the U.S. economy — is flagging, helping to reverse what seemed like relentless growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in previous quarters. [contact-form-7] On Thursday (June 26), the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the economy shrank by 0. (PYMNTS)
Economic Growth: The biggest bull indicator for Japan’s market is that companies have a mounting enthusiasm for buybacks, the latest front in a campaign to become more shareholder-friendly. (Barrons)
Economic Growth: Consumer spending also slowed sharply, expanding just 0.5%, down from a robust 4% in fourth-quarter 2024. (New York Post)
Inflation: The explosion of corporate profits during the high-inflation years stalled in Q1, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis today. In nonfinancial domestic industries, pretax profits of incorporated businesses of all sizes edged up by just 0.1% in Q1, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2.95 trillion. (Seeking Alpha)
Inflation: The European Central Bank is on track to meet is 2% inflation target, the institution’s Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Friday. (Reuters)
Inflation: The S&P 500 is in a bubble, trading at extreme valuations with a Shiller PE above 37, which is just below the 2000 dot-come levels. The recent Fed’s SEP suggests that stagflation is a major risk in 2025, and possibly in 2026. (Seeking Alpha)
Inflation: DAX rises as Fed rate cut hopes gain traction, but trade tensions and inflation data may determine the index’s short-term outlook and risk sentiment. (FXEmpire)
Inflation: Given how loosely all the title terms are used, let’s start with the definitions of each. 1. Disinflation 4. (See It Market)
Inflation: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said on Thursday tariffs are very likely to push inflation up over coming months, in remarks that said U.S. central bank policy is where it needs to be to deal with what lies ahead. (Fast Company)
Inflation: Higher inflation from tariffs is still expected to flow through the U.S. economy, but Wall Street investors aren’t expecting the price increases to show up this week. (Market Watch)
Interest Rates: The central bank lowered its overnight interest-rate target to 8% in split 4-1 vote. (WSJ)
Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve chair is one of 12 voters on the rate-setting committee. To what extent can the chair call the shots? (Market Watch)
Interest Rates: The gulf between where the Federal Reserve projects interest rates will be by the end of 2026 and the more aggressive cutting financial markets expect by then is partly due to the expectation that U.S. central bank chief Jerome Powell will be replaced by somebody more dovish next year, investors said. (Reuters)
Interest Rates: Should Fed governors Waller and Bowman both lodge dissenting votes against a committee decision to hold rates steady next month, the tally would show an unusual level of discord. (WSJ)
Interest Rates: Mortgage rates fell to a seven-week low this week, giving home buyers some reprieve from high borrowing costs, even as affordability remains strained. (Market Watch)
International relations: Currencies and earnings momentum favour international markets (Market Watch)
Market Sentiment: European and Japanese stocks gain (WSJ)
Market Sentiment: Between multiple wars, tariffs, and a deficit-raising government spending bill, there are many reasons for investors to be nervous, yet they appear happy to ignore them all. (Barrons)
Policy: Markets rallied Thursday, brushing off Washington’s procedural theatre over the reconciliation bill. The real signal came from the Fed. (Seeking Alpha)
Policy: No decisions are imminent, although Trump has the right to change his mind and many good options to nominate as the next chairman, a White House official said. (New York Post)
Policy: The U.S. dollar sank to three-year low following reports that Trump plans to announce Powell’s Fed chair successor early, with Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett among leading contenders. (Fox Business)
Policy: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell now heads into his next challenge: a potential threat that President Donald Trump could undermine his authority by soon naming his pick to head the central bank. In the wake of the intense criticism, Wall Street has been buzzing over the potential for a “shadow chair,” or someone Trump could install as a central bank gadfly until Powell’s term expires. (CNBC)
Policy: Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr on Thursday said the U.S. central bank needs to ensure that banks are measuring and managing climate-related risk as they do other risks. (Reuters)
Policy: A few weeks ago, Vice President J.D. Vance promoted a free-market-friendly approach to regulating cryptocurrency. He said that the administration wanted a “common sense” framework rather than a “dictatorial government” to ensure that “the laws of economics” would do their thing. (Forbes)
Policy: The White House weighed in after market chatter turned to the talk of an early pick for the next Fed chair. (Barrons)
Policy: A potential “attempt to influence the Fed so directly” by announcing a successor to Jerome Powell well before his term expires “does not set well with investors,” notes one analyst. (Market Watch)
Policy: US President Donald Trump is considering announcing a replacement for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as early as this summer, months ahead of Powell’s term ending in May 2026, the Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday evening. According to the report, Trump could reveal his final decision by September or October, in a move seen by some as an effort to undercut Powell’s authority during a volatile period for US monetary policy. (Proactive Investors)
Industry
Automotive: The U.K.’s new car and commercial vehicle production volumes fell by 32.8% to 49,810 units last month, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). It means that excluding 2020, when factories were shuttered during Covid-19 lockdowns, U.K. vehicle output in May collapsed to its lowest level since 1949. (CNBC)
Automotive: It’s not quite the second quarter earnings season yet; that kicks off on July 15 with some of the big banks. In the meantime, investors will be tuned in to important results from the automakers next week, when thirteen global car companies release their monthly production, deliveries and/or sales numbers. (See It Market)
Automotive: Investors will be tuned in to important results from the automakers next week, when thirteen global car companies release their monthly production, deliveries and/or sales numbers. It’s been a turbulent year for US automakers as tariffs on parts made outside of the US have increased the costs for cars overall, during a time when some US autos have struggled to gain market share from foreign competitors. (Seeking Alpha)
Semiconductors: Just a few months ago, the S&P Technology Index was in the tank. Today, it’s like the phoenix rising from the ashes. (Barrons)
Semiconductors: When considering the best semiconductor stocks, there’s Nvidia and then there’s everyone else. Here, we look at the mega-cap chipmaker and a few of its peers. (Kiplinger)
Semiconductors: Semiconductor stocks look to be making a comeback from lows in April and have led the S&P 500 so far this month with double-digit gains. (Market Watch)
Corporate
Acuity Brands: Acuity (NYSE:AYI) shares increased by more than 7% intra-day after reporting third-quarter earnings and revenue that surpassed Wall Street estimates. Adjusted earnings per share were $5.12, exceeding the consensus estimate of $4.30. Revenue totaled $1.2 billion, above analyst projections of $1.15 billion. Growth was attributed to strong performance in the Lighting and Spaces divisions. (FMP)
Acuity Brands, Inc.: On June 26, 2025, Acuity Brands (NYSE: AYI) reported Q3 earnings of $5.12 per share, exceeding the estimated $4.44, representing a 15.84% earnings surprise. Revenue was $1.18 billion, surpassing the estimated $1.15 billion, a 3.02% revenue beat. Operating profit decreased by 4% to $140 million, but adjusted operating profit grew by 33% to $222 million, and adjusted diluted EPS rose by 23% to $5.12, while diluted EPS decreased by 14% to $3.12. The company has surpassed EPS estimates four times in the past four quarters and revenue estimates twice. Key financial ratios include a P/E ratio of 22.62, a price-to-sales ratio of 2.38, an enterprise value to sales ratio of 2.58, a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.47, and a current ratio of 1.95. (FMP)
Bumble Inc: Bumble Inc. (NASDAQ:BMBL), a company in the online dating industry, has a market capitalization of approximately $688 million. On June 26, 2025, RBC Capital maintained an “Outperform” rating with a raised price target from $5 to $7, while the stock was priced at $6.52. The current stock price is $6.66, a 2.14% increase or $0.14, after trading between $6.53 and $6.93 today. Over the past year, the stock has ranged from a high of $10.66 to a low of $3.55, with a current trading volume of 1,037,507 shares. (FMP)
CF Industries (NYSE:CF): On June 26, 2025, Morgan Stanley’s Vincent Andrews set a price target of $95 for CF Industries (NYSE:CF), representing a potential 3.94% increase from the then-stock price of $91.40. The stock traded between a low of $91.37 and a high of $94.58 during the day. Over the past year, CF Industries’ stock has ranged from a high of $104.45 to a low of $67.34. The company currently has a market capitalization of approximately $14.81 billion and a trading volume of 2,811,503 shares. CF Industries received a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) upgrade and benefits from a favorable trend in Zacks Consensus Estimates, indicating upward earnings revisions. (FMP)
ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP): On June 26, 2025, Wells Fargo set a price target of $117 for ConocoPhillips (COP), representing a potential 31.46% increase from its then-current price of $89. Currently, COP’s stock price is $89.60, with a daily fluctuation between $89.22 and $89.99; it reached a 52-week high of $118.40 and a low of $79.88. Recently, the stock closed at $91.71, a 3.15% decline, while the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq saw gains. Despite this, COP has increased 11.15% over the past month, outperforming the Oils-Energy sector (6.67%) and the S&P 500 (0.5%). Quarterly revenue is expected to rise 5.52% to $14.92 billion, but earnings per share are projected to decline 28.79% to $1.41 year-over-year. Full fiscal year estimates project earnings of $6.21 per share and total revenue of $62.36 billion. COP’s market capitalization is approximately $113.1 billion, with a trading volume of 589,867 shares. (FMP)
ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP): Wells Fargo maintained an “Overweight” rating for ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) on June 26, 2025, raising the price target from $113 to $117. The stock closed at $91.71, a 3.15% decrease, but has increased by 11.15% over the past month, outperforming the Oils-Energy sector’s 6.67% gain and the S&P 500’s 0.5% rise. The upcoming earnings report is projected to show earnings of $1.41 per share, a 28.79% year-over-year decline, and quarterly revenue of $14.92 billion, a 5.52% increase. Full fiscal year forecasts are $6.21 per share earnings and $62.36 billion in total revenue. The current stock price is $89, down 0.44%, with a 52-week range of $79.88 to $118.40, a market capitalization of $112.35 billion and a daily trading volume of 6,374,190 shares. (FMP)
CTO Realty Growth: CTO Realty Growth (NYSE:CTO), a real estate investment trust (REIT), saw its PRESIDENT & CEO, Albright John P, purchase 3,800 shares on June 26, 2025, at approximately $17.05 per share, increasing his total holdings to 628,347 shares. The company will release its Q2 2025 financial results on July 29, 2025, and host a conference call on July 30, 2025, at 9:00 AM ET. Key financial metrics include a current ratio of 2.53, a price-to-earnings ratio of -97.51, a price-to-sales ratio of 4.27, an enterprise value to sales ratio of 4.21, and an enterprise value to operating cash flow ratio of 8.19. (FMP)
Exxon Mobil Corporation: Wells Fargo analyst Roger Read set a price target of $127 for NYSE:XOM, predicting a 17.19% increase from its current price of $108.37. At the JP Morgan Energy, Power, Renewables & Mining Conference on June 24, 2025, the stock was trading at $108.37, up $0.03 (2.77%), with a daily low of $107.70 and a high of $109.24. Over the past year, XOM has traded between a high of $126.34 and a low of $97.80, while its market capitalization is approximately $467 billion, and its trading volume was 17.47 million shares. (FMP)
Guidewire Software, Inc: Guidewire Software, Inc. (NYSE: GWRE) launched Marketplace Reviews to drive innovation in the P&C insurance sector, experiencing a surge in solution downloads. Director Michael C. Keller sold 1,000 shares at $239 each, retaining 9,410 shares. The current stock price is $234.06, a 0.83% decrease of $1.95. Over the past 52 weeks, the stock has ranged from a high of $263.20 to a low of $132.01, with a current market capitalization of approximately $19.71 billion and a trading volume of 324,408 shares. (FMP)
H.B. Fuller Company: H.B. Fuller Company (NYSE:FUL) shares rose over 10% intra-day after reporting second-quarter earnings. Adjusted EPS for the quarter ended May 31 was $1.18, exceeding the $1.08 consensus, on revenue of $898 million, slightly below the $900.07 million forecast. Revenue increased 2.8% year-over-year (adjusted for divestitures). Q2 adjusted EBITDA increased 5% to $166 million, with margins improving 130 basis points to 18.4%. Full-year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance was raised to $4.10–$4.30, above the $4.08 consensus, with expected adjusted EBITDA of $615–$630 million, representing 4–6% annual growth. Full-year net revenue is projected to decline 2–3%, but organic revenue is expected to grow flat to 2%, offset by a foreign exchange headwind of 1.0–1.5%. Organic revenue edged up 0.4% year-over-year. (FMP)
Jumia Technologies AG: Jumia Technologies AG (NYSE:JMIA) has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -93.11%, significantly below its Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) of 18.35%. Comparatively, fuboTV Inc. (FUBO) has a ROIC of -0.02% and a WACC of 12.13%, resulting in a ROIC to WACC ratio of -0.0018. Blink Charging Co. (BLNK) exhibits a ROIC of -139.46% and a WACC of 17.24%, yielding a ROIC to WACC ratio of -8.09. All three companies are operating with negative ROICs, indicating they are not covering their cost of capital. (FMP)
Lindsay Corporation: Lindsay Corporation (NYSE:LNN) reported an EPS of $1.78 on June 26, 2025, exceeding the estimated $1.36 and increasing from $1.41 in the same quarter last year, representing a 30.88% earnings surprise. The previous quarter saw an EPS of $2.44 against an anticipated $1.89, a 29.1% surprise. Revenue for the quarter ending May 2025 was $169.5 million, exceeding the estimated $161.8 million—a 4.6% increase over the Zacks Consensus Estimate and a significant increase from the $139.2 million reported in the same period last year. Key financial metrics include a P/E ratio of 20.28, a price-to-sales ratio of 2.41, an enterprise value to sales ratio of 2.35, a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.26, a current ratio of 3.64, and an earnings yield of 4.93%. (FMP)
McCormick & Company: McCormick & Company (MKC) shares increased over 5% intra-day following Q2 earnings. Net sales for the quarter rose 1% year-over-year to $1.66 billion. Adjusted EPS was $0.69, exceeding the $0.66 consensus forecast. For fiscal 2025, McCormick maintains its guidance of adjusted EPS between $3.03–$3.08 (versus a $3.02 consensus), operating income growth of 3% to 5%, and annual sales projected to be flat to up 2%. (FMP)
McCormick & Company: On June 26, 2025, McCormick & Company (NYSE:MKC) reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.69, exceeding the estimated $0.65. Revenue was approximately $1.66 billion, matching the estimated $1.66 billion. The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 25.18, the price-to-sales ratio is 2.94, the enterprise value to sales ratio is 3.45, the enterprise value to operating cash flow ratio is 25.80, and the earnings yield is 3.97%. (FMP)
Micron Technology: Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) reported fiscal third-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.91 per share on $9.3 billion in revenue, exceeding analyst estimates of $1.59 EPS and $8.84 billion in revenue. Sales of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips increased by nearly 50% sequentially. For the fourth quarter, Micron anticipates revenue of $10.7 billion, plus or minus $300 million, above the Wall Street consensus of $9.88 billion. (FMP)
Micron Technology: Raymond James maintained an “Outperform” rating for Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) on June 26, 2025, with a stock price of approximately $126.56. The firm raised its price target from $120 to $150. At least three analysts have raised price targets, bringing the average recommendation to $141. Micron’s stock price decreased by 0.75%, or $0.95, to approximately $126.30, trading between $124.33 and $130.05 on the day. Over the past year, the stock has ranged from $61.54 to $137.39. Micron’s market capitalization is approximately $141.14 billion, with a trading volume of around 32.08 million shares. (FMP)
MillerKnoll (NASDAQ:MLKN): MillerKnoll (NASDAQ:MLKN) shares rose over 10% intra-day after reporting stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter results. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.60, exceeding analyst expectations by $0.16, and revenue reached $961.8 million, surpassing the $913.8 million consensus estimate. For the first quarter of fiscal 2026, MillerKnoll projects EPS between $0.32 and $0.38, compared to the $0.35 Street estimate, and revenue between $899 million and $939 million, with a midpoint of $919 million, above the $890.7 million analyst forecast. (FMP)
Nextech3D.ai: Nextech3D.ai (NEXCF) is scheduled to release quarterly earnings on June 27, 2025, with an estimated earnings per share of -$0.01 and revenue of $315,000. The company recently secured a $150,000 enterprise contract, signed June 20, 2025, for the creation of 5,000 AI-generated 3D models. Key financial metrics include a price-to-sales ratio of 2.12, a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.07, a price-to-earnings ratio of -0.14, an enterprise value to sales ratio of 1.19, an enterprise value to operating cash flow ratio of -0.25, an earnings yield of -7.03%, and a current ratio of 1.76. (FMP)
Restaurant Brands International Inc.: Loop Capital Markets reaffirmed its “Buy” rating for NYSE:QSR (Restaurant Brands International Inc.) on June 26, 2025, despite a stock price decrease of 0.99%, or $0.65, to $64.86, with a daily trading range of $64.79 to $65.60. QSR’s market capitalization is approximately $21.25 billion, and the NYSE trading volume was 3,012,694 shares. Over the past year, the stock has traded between $75.07 and $58.71. The company operates over 32,000 restaurants in more than 120 countries, generating nearly $45 billion in annual system-wide sales. QSR will release its Q2 2025 financial results on August 7, 2025, with an investor conference call scheduled for 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the same day, with a replay available for 30 days. (FMP)
Walgreens Boots Alliance: Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) reported third-quarter results with adjusted EPS of $0.38, a decrease from $0.63 a year ago, but exceeding the $0.31 consensus. Sales increased by 7.2% year-over-year to $39 billion, surpassing analyst estimates of $36.79 billion. The company is preparing for a $10 billion deal with Sycamore Partners to go private, expected to close in late 2025, pending regulatory and shareholder approval, after which Walgreens shares will be delisted from Nasdaq. Walgreens aims for $1 billion in annual savings through cost-cutting measures, including closing thousands of stores, after previously being valued at $100 billion. (FMP)
