Daily News Round Up
Thursday, 26 Jun 2025
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- Global Economic Growth is Mixed, with Increasing Divergence (Reuters, Seeking Alpha, WSJ). While the S&P 500 nears record highs boosted by easing Middle East tensions and Fed patience ( (FXEmpire)), other regions present a more subdued picture. Declining UK retail sales ( (Reuters)) and a 16% year-over-year drop in global dealmaking ( (WSJ)) point to broader economic headwinds, likely exacerbating relative outperformance of foreign stocks ( (Seeking Alpha)).
- US Presidential Election Risk is Rising and Impacting Market Sentiment (WSJ, CNBC, Fox Business). The potential for a shift in economic policy following the US presidential election is sparking concern on Wall Street. A possible Trump victory is prompting fears of tax hikes and tighter regulations ( (CNBC)), while his ongoing criticism of Jerome Powell and exploration of potential Fed Chair replacements ( (WSJ)) create uncertainty around monetary policy. Zohran Mamdani’s surprising mayoral win in NYC further contributes a similar, politically driven anxiety to the market ( (Fox Business)).
- Interest Rate Policy Remains a Key Driver of Market Performance, but is Politicized (Market Watch, WSJ, CNBC). Federal Reserve Chair Powell is facing pressure, especially from President Trump, to cut interest rates (Market Watch), however, the Fed remains data-dependent and cautious. Simultaneously, proposed easing of bank capital rules ( (CNBC)) could stimulate lending and further impact the Treasury market, potentially influencing yield curves. This intersection of monetary policy and political pressure creates a complex landscape for investors.
- Tech Sector Continues to Lead, with AI Driving Investment Focus (Market Watch, Seeking Alpha, Financial Modeling Prep). The technology sector continues to demonstrate strength, particularly in areas related to artificial intelligence. Nvidia’s all-time high ( (Seeking Alpha)) and positive analysts’ notes on Microsoft’s AI growth potential ((FMP)) highlight ongoing investor enthusiasm. Furthermore, strong demand for server racks (Super Micro Computer) underscores the infrastructure build-out supporting AI ( (Seeking Alpha)).
- Corporate Earnings Paint a Mixed Picture, Highlighting Sector-Specific Challenges (FMP, Barrons, WSJ). Earnings releases reveal a nuanced picture. While some companies like AGF Management Limited beat EPS estimates ( (FMP)), others, like FedEx and Winnebago Industries, issued weaker-than-expected guidance ( (FMP), (FMP)). General Mills also foresees flat-to-negative sales ( (FMP)). These variations emphasize the need for a selective approach to equity investment as headwinds from tariffs and softening consumer demand impact specific sectors differently.
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What happened yesterday?
Macro
Economic Growth: British retail sales slumped this month and expectations within the industry for July also deteriorated, a Confederation of British Industry survey showed on Thursday. (Reuters)
Economic Growth: The S&P 500 has outperformed the Russell 2000 since March 2021. Small-cap stocks’ tendency to outperform during recessions and early-stage expansions may be related to interest rate sensitivity. (Seeking Alpha)
Economic Growth: The worldwide tally of mergers, acquisitions, divestitures, financings and joint ventures so far in 2025 was down 16% year-over-year at 16,663, according to Mergermarket. (WSJ)
Economic Growth: The Fed’s on hold, Middle East turmoil persists, and economic conditions at home may turn worrisome. Companies also voice concern, but their actions appear to be more bullish. (Seeking Alpha)
Economic Growth: S&P 500 nears record as Middle East tensions ease and Fed signals patience on rate cuts. Traders eye GDP and PCE data for clues on US stock market direction. (FXEmpire)
Housing: Austin, Texas, and other red-state cities have set an example for how to make housing markets work. (WSJ)
Interest Rates: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made clear this week that he’s not ready to give in to demands by President Donald Trump to immediately cut U.S. interest rates. So what would convince him? (Market Watch)
International relations: Shares in European defence firms edged up on Thursday after NATO leaders on Wednesday backed the increase in defence spending demanded by U.S. President Donald Trump. (Reuters)
International relations: Foreigners divested Japanese stock for the first time in 12 weeks in the week through June 21 on caution over the Israel-Iran conflict and its impact on Japanese oil imports and inflation. (Reuters)
International relations: Investing nearly anywhere beyond America’s shores has been a winning strategy year to date. The strongest outperformance has been in central and eastern Europe via a closed-end fund (no US-listed ETFs for this region are available). (Seeking Alpha)
Policy: The White House disputes the CBO’s $2.8 trillion deficit projection for Republican tax package, claiming the analysis understates economic output and productivity growth. (Fox Business)
Policy: Here are four key things investors should know to start the trading day. (Market Watch)
Policy: Danish pension fund AkademikerPension has lifted a self-imposed ban on investment in six of Europe’s largest arms makers and some smaller groups, it said on Thursday, citing a worsening security situation and the need to boost European defences. (Reuters)
Policy: President Trump is considering naming the next Federal Reserve Chair early, in a bid to undermine Jerome Powell (WSJ)
Policy: Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett and Scott Bessent are among those under consideration as Trump evaluates their commitment to cutting rates—and ‘made-for-TV’ appeal. (WSJ)
Policy: Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett and Scott Bessent are among those under consideration as Trump evaluates their commitment to cutting rates—and ‘made-for-TV’ appeal. (WSJ)
Policy: His potential victory could bring what the Street despises the most — tax hikes and tighter regulation that threaten corporate and investment interests. (CNBC)
Policy: Your computer may soon take out a loan, approved by a bank’s computer. Millions of such transactions can determine the money supply. (WSJ)
Policy: Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist, defeated former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the New York City Democratic mayoral primary race in a surprising victory on Tuesday. (Fox Business)
Policy: A large portion of the CFOs said they plan to raise prices significantly. (Barrons)
Policy: Donald Trump has revived his criticism of the head of the US central bank, describing Jay Powell as “terrible” and “stupid”, adding that there were up to four candidates to succeed him. (Skynews)
Policy: The Federal Reserve proposed easing a key capital rule for banks, and central bank officials will vote on the measure at 2 p.m. Wednesday. (CNBC)
Policy: The Federal Reserve unveiled a proposal on Wednesday that would overhaul how much capital large global banks must hold against relatively low-risk assets, as part of a bid to boost participation in U.S. Treasury markets. (Reuters)
Policy: U.S. regulators took their first concrete steps on Wednesday toward deregulating banks in a way that is seen as likely to have big implications for the Treasury market, investors and the broader financial market. (Market Watch)
Policy: President Donald Trump on Wednesday criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for keeping interest rates too high, calling the central bank chief an “average mentally person.” (Fox Business)
Policy: Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani’s stunning primary win is rattling the financial industry that had backed Andrew Cuomo. (WSJ)
Trade: The July 8 tariff deadline approaches (InvestorPlace)
Trade: The United States is trying to decouple its economy from rivals like China. Efforts toward this include policymakers raising tariffs on Chinese goods, blocking exports of advanced technology and offering subsidies to boost American manufacturing. (TechXplore)
Industry
Semiconductors: While shares of chip makers and cloud providers have been the winners so far this year, there are still opportunities for investors in software stocks, analysts said. (Market Watch)
Corporate
AGF Management Limited: AGF Management Limited (PNK:AGFMF) reported Q2 2025 adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.39, exceeding the consensus estimate of $0.34. Revenue for the quarter was $129.94 million, missing projections of $141.00 million. The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.125 per share. As of May 31, 2025, assets under management and fee-earning assets totaled $53.5 billion, a decline from $53.8 billion on February 28, 2025, but an increase from $47.8 billion a year earlier. Mutual fund gross sales were $1,148 million, down from $1,568 million in the prior quarter, but up from $934 million a year ago. Key financial metrics include a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6.78, a price-to-sales ratio of 1.55, an enterprise value-to-sales ratio of 1.80, a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.15, and a current ratio of 1.36. (FMP)
Autodesk, Inc.: Autodesk (NASDAQ:ADSK) is a software design leader focusing on AI-driven features, including AutoConstrain, to drive growth and improve margins. On June 24, 2025, Executive Vice President Pearce Rebecca sold 2,544 shares at $305 each. Key financial metrics include a P/E ratio of 55.26, a price-to-sales ratio of 10.24, an enterprise value to sales ratio of 10.32, an enterprise value to operating cash flow ratio of 39.06, a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.90, a current ratio of 0.65, and an earnings yield of 1.81%. The company maintains a buy rating despite a challenging macroeconomic environment. (FMP)
CAI International, Inc. / Caris Life Sciences / Hasbro / Circle / Amazon: CAI International, Inc. is preparing to go public on the NASDAQ, offering 16.8 million shares at $21 each. Caris Life Sciences, trading as CAI on Nasdaq, saw its stock price surge over 32% post-IPO, rising from $21 to $27.85 per share. Hasbro’s shares increased by 1.3%, with the company laying off 3% of its workforce due to tariff impacts. Circle’s stock surged 16% following stablecoin legislation, and Amazon’s shares rose 0.88%. Oil prices are above $73 per barrel, and the S&P 500 is up 0.32%. CAI’s current stock price is $27.70, a 6.78% increase from the previous session, with a daily trading range of $26.45 – $28.11, a yearly range of $25.56 – $30.70, and a market capitalization of approximately $7.85 billion, with a trading volume of 1,727,255 shares on the NYSE. (FMP)
Coinbase Global: Bernstein SocGen Group raised its price target for Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN) to $510 from $310, maintaining an Outperform rating. Coinbase is the only crypto-native company in the S&P 500 and holds a commanding share of the U.S. crypto trading market. Its stablecoin business represents roughly 15% of its total revenue. Coinbase provides custody services for 8 of the 11 Bitcoin ETF asset managers and recently acquired Deribit, the world’s largest crypto options exchange. Analysts anticipate positive regulatory impacts from the GENIUS Act and CLARITY Act. Bernstein projects 2025 and 2026 EPS to be more than double consensus estimates, and the stock rose more than 2% intra-day. (FMP)
Duke Energy: Goldman Sachs upgraded Duke Energy (NYSE:DUK) from Neutral to Buy, raising the price target to $132. The upgrade cites a more optimistic growth outlook, regulatory progress, and relative valuation. Duke’s projected capital expenditure (capex) growth is strong through 2029, particularly in the Carolinas where electricity demand is accelerating. Goldman expects Duke to trade at a 6% discount to its premium utility peers based on forward P/E. The company has secured favorable outcomes in recent rate cases in both the Carolinas and Florida. (FMP)
FedEx: FedEx (NYSE:FDX) shares fell over 5% intra-day after issuing a weaker-than-expected profit forecast. The company reported fourth-quarter earnings per share of $6.07 on $22.2 billion in revenue, exceeding analyst estimates. However, FedEx projects adjusted Q1 EPS between $3.40 and $4.00, below Wall Street’s expectation of $4.06. Full-year earnings and revenue guidance was withheld due to a highly uncertain macro environment. FedEx implemented $2.2 billion in structural cost cuts over the past year to offset weaker volumes. (FMP)
General Mills: General Mills (NYSE:GIS) forecasts flat-to-negative organic net sales, ranging from down 1% to up 1%, and a 10% to 15% decrease in adjusted operating profit (from a $3.4 billion base last year) for the new fiscal year. The company’s shares dropped over 3% intra-day. In the fiscal fourth quarter, net sales declined 3.3% year-over-year to $4.56 billion, and adjusted EPS was $0.74, exceeding the expected $0.71. Category growth is now projected to underperform long-term expectations for fiscal 2026. (FMP)
General Mills, Inc.: On June 25, 2025, General Mills reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.74, exceeding the estimated $0.71. Revenue was approximately $4.56 billion, below the estimated $4.60 billion. The company’s fiscal year ended on May 25, 2025. Strategic investments in the latter half of fiscal 2025 improved volume and market share. Key financial ratios include a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.53, a price-to-sales ratio of 1.49, an enterprise value to sales ratio of 2.18, an enterprise value to operating cash flow ratio of 13.54, an earnings yield of 8.67%, a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.53, and a current ratio of 0.67. (FMP)
Goldman Sachs / Monster Beverage: Goldman highlighted stocks like Monster Beverage that will win if subprime customers remain resilient. (Barrons)
Jefferies: Jefferies investors could be in for a rough Wednesday night. (Barrons)
Kymera Therapeutics / Gilead Sciences: Kymera Therapeutics (NASDAQ:KYMR) is a biopharmaceutical company focused on targeted protein degradation therapies, with a market capitalization of approximately $3.04 billion. On June 25, 2025, Jefferies set a price target of $64 for Kymera, representing a potential 38.5% increase from its then-current trading price of $46.21. The company has a current trading price of $46.68, with a daily high of $46.79 and a low of $44.62. Over the past year, the stock has ranged from a high of $53.27 to a low of $19.45. Kymera has a strategic partnership with Gilead Sciences, involving an exclusive option and license agreement valued at up to $750 million, to develop a novel cancer treatment targeting cyclin-dependent kinase 2 (CDK2). Trading volume for KYMR is 561,870 shares. (FMP)
Michaels Companies Inc: The arts-and-crafts retailer told its debtholders that same-store sales rose 2.3% in May quarter. (WSJ)
Microsoft Corp: H.C. Wainwright initiated coverage on Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) on June 25, 2025, with a Neutral rating and a stock price of $491.69, later reported at $490.21 with a daily trading range of $490.12 – $494.53 and a market capitalization of approximately $3.64 trillion and trading volume of 7.43 million shares. Wedbush raised its price target to $600 (from $515) projecting over 70% of Microsoft’s customer base will adopt enterprise AI by 2028. Wells Fargo projects Microsoft’s AI business will generate $100 billion in revenue, maintains an “overweight” rating, and increased its price target to $585 (from $565). Microsoft’s capital spending is expected to reach $80 billion for fiscal 2025, with further growth anticipated in 2026. (FMP)
Nvidia: Nvidia was the star in the stock market Wednesday, even as the Nasdaq composite could only muster a 0.3% gain. (Investors Business Daily)
Nvidia / Super Micro Computer: The day belonged to tech. Nvidia (NVDA) notched another all-time high, and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) went even bigger, offering Wall Street its favorite pairing: server racks and exponential adjectives. (Seeking Alpha)
Palantir Technologies Inc.: Palantir’s (NASDAQ:PLTR) stock has increased nearly 5.5 times over the past year, currently priced at approximately $140, with a market capitalization of around $330 billion (reported as $324.12 billion in one instance). In the last month, the stock gained 13%, and today’s price is $143.23, representing a 2.37% increase, fluctuating between $137.80 and $143.65 today and a range of $21.23 to $144.86 over the past year. U.S. commercial revenue surged by nearly 70% year-over-year in the last quarter. Palantir acquired over one million shares of Surf Air Mobility Inc. and is expanding AI capabilities into the aviation industry, with a trading volume of 55.90 million shares. (FMP)
Paychex (NASDAQ:PAYX): Paychex (NASDAQ:PAYX) shares fell 7% intra-day following fourth-quarter results. Adjusted diluted EPS was $1.19, matching consensus estimates, and revenue increased 10% year-over-year to $1.43 billion, also in line with forecasts. Management Solutions revenue rose 12% to $1.0 billion; organic growth in that segment was 3% excluding the impact of the Paycor acquisition. For fiscal 2026, Paychex projects total revenue growth of 16.5% to 18.5%, adjusted EPS growth of 8.5% to 10.5%, Management Solutions revenue growth of 20% to 22%, and growth of 6% to 8% for the PEO and Insurance Solutions segment. (FMP)
Paychex, Inc.: Paychex reported an EPS of $1.19 on June 25, 2025, meeting the estimated EPS and exceeding the previous year’s EPS of $1.12. Revenue was approximately $1.43 billion, slightly below the estimated $1.44 billion, with fourth-quarter revenue reported as $1.427 billion, demonstrating growth year-over-year. Key financial metrics include a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 28.96, a price-to-sales ratio of 9.27, an enterprise value to sales ratio of 9.14, a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.21, and a current ratio of 1.39. (FMP)
Super Micro Computer, Inc.: Wedbush maintains a “Buy” rating for SMCI (NASDAQ:SMCI) as of June 25, 2025, initially with a “hold” action and a stock price of $46.18, which has since increased to $46.48, a rise of approximately 8.49% or $3.64. The stock traded between $43.12 and $46.93 during the day and has a 52-week range of $17.25 to $96.33. SMCI forecasts revenues of $22.12 billion in 2025 and $30.2 billion in 2026. The introduction of Direct Liquid-Cooled, Building Block Solutions (DCBBS) is projected to drive a 19% growth in SMCI’s server segment. The company’s market capitalization is approximately $27.74 billion, with a current trading volume of 61.76 million shares. (FMP)
T-Mobile US, Inc: T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) has been recognized as having the best network in America, currently trading at $231.26, up 0.63% with a daily trading range of $228.90 to $231.29. The stock’s 52-week high is $276.49 and its low is $173.74. DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG recently sold 47,074 shares at approximately $221.54 each and 22,366 shares at $222.33 each, but still holds 648.36 million shares. Today’s trading volume is 2,429,449 shares, and the company’s market capitalization is approximately $262.58 billion. (FMP)
Winnebago Industries: Winnebago Industries (NYSE:WGO) reported fiscal third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $0.81, missing the $0.90 consensus forecast. Revenue was $775.1 million, a 1.4% decrease from $786 million in the same quarter last year, and slightly below the $779.46 million estimate. The company reduced its full-year fiscal 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $1.20 to $1.70, down from the previous $1.80 consensus, and revised revenue guidance to $2.7 billion to $2.8 billion. Shares fell over 6% intra-day following the announcement. (FMP)
Winnebago Industries, Inc.: Winnebago Industries (NYSE: WGO) reported earnings per share of $0.81, exceeding the estimated $0.79, on June 25, 2025. Net income for the quarter was $17.6 million, or $0.62 per diluted share. Revenue reached approximately $775.1 million, slightly above the estimated $774.8 million, with net revenues of $775 million for the third quarter of fiscal 2025. The gross profit was $106 million, resulting in a gross margin of 13.7%. Key financial ratios include a price-to-sales ratio of 0.32, an enterprise value to sales ratio of 0.51, a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.53, and a current ratio of 2.17. The Towable RV segment saw unit volume growth, and the Marine segment demonstrated strong profitability growth. (FMP)
