Daily News Round Up
Friday, 20 Jun 2025
- Geopolitical Instability and Commodity Prices are Rising: Escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, are driving a significant surge in crude oil prices, up around 20% in June and poised for its largest monthly jump since 2020. (Reuters) This poses a risk of inflationary pressures and potentially impacts sectors like airlines and transportation, while benefitting energy producers.
- Global Economic Growth is Showing Signs of Weakness: Data from the UK and US indicate a slowdown in economic activity with UK retail sales falling 2.7% month-on-month in May and US economic growth starting to contract. (WSJ), (Seeking Alpha) This weakening economic outlook raises concerns about corporate earnings and could lead to increased market volatility.
- Central Bank Policy is Increasingly Complicated by Geopolitics and Uncertainty: Norway’s unexpected rate cut highlighted the challenges central banks face amid geopolitical risks, fluctuating tariffs, and unpredictable inflation. (Reuters) Despite this, the Fed still anticipates two rate cuts in 2025, though President Trump’s consistent calls for larger cuts add further complexity and political pressure.
- US-China Trade Tensions & Regulatory Changes are Impacting Global Industries: Continued US tariffs are impacting industries like automotive and steel (German car manufacturers incurring €0.5 billion in costs, Canada imposing import curbs). (Reuters) The potential approval of the GENIUS Act to regulate stablecoins in the US signals increasing regulatory scrutiny of the crypto market and potentially impacts Fintech companies. (FMP)
- Technology Sector Shows Mixed Signals: While the Paris Air Show saw strong order volume from Airbus ($20.9 billion), Boeing faced a lack of new orders amidst continued safety concerns. (FMP) Simultaneously, Taiwan’s equity market, driven by AI demand, has shown positive fundamentals though valuation is normalizing. (Seeking Alpha) Amazon is mandating corporate employee relocation, reflecting cost-cutting and the impact of automation. (FMP)
What happened yesterday?
Macro
Commodity Prices: Brent crude oil is up around 20% so far in June, and set for its biggest monthly jump since 2020 as Israel/Iran tensions flare-up. (Reuters)
Consumer Sentiment: The result built on the previous month’s rise and came against economists’ expectations for no change. (WSJ)
Economic Growth: Retail sales were 2.7% lower on month in May in another sign of pessimism in an economy struggling to gain momentum. (WSJ)
Economic Growth: British retail sales fell 2.7% on the month in May, official figures showed on Friday. (Reuters)
Economic Growth: US economic growth is slowing, with May data showing contraction. Further weakness is expected in coming months. (Seeking Alpha)
Geopolitics: Natural gas accounts for 85% of Iran’s and 70% of Israel’s power generation mix, creating vulnerabilities due to rising Israel-Iran hostilities. Iran, the third-largest producer, exports gas to Turkey and Iraq, with potential disruptions impacting Turkey’s reliance on Russian pipeline supplies and global LNG, and potentially forcing Iraq to use heavier fuels. Israel has already shut two of its three production fields, halting exports to Egypt and Jordan to prioritize domestic supply, and has limited regasification capacity. Two Floating Storage Regasification Units (FSRUs) are due to deploy in Egypt, potentially increasing import capacity, though this may be partially offset by increased output from LNG Canada. JPMorgan highlights a risk of immediate price spikes and costly LNG market reliance due to supply disruptions, and advises accelerated diversification of gas supply and storage. (FMP)
Inflation: Investor unease about an increasingly uncertain environment is rising, as Norway’s shock rate cut on Thursday highlights how U.S. tariffs, Middle East conflict and a shaky dollar make global monetary policy and inflation even harder to predict. (Reuters)
Interest Rates: China expectedly kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged Friday. The People’s Bank of China held the 1-year loan prime rate at 3.0% and 5-year LPR at 3.5%. (CNBC)
Interest Rates: The Treasury Department faces the challenge of refinancing $11 trillion in U.S. debt within a year as President Trump calls for the Fed to cut interest rates to lower debt costs. (Fox Business)
International relations: Fed officials still see 2 quarter-point rate cuts in 2025, Nvidia goes nuclear along with the rest of Big Tech, and more news to start your day. (Barrons)
International relations: Hang Seng gains as US delays Iran strike decision; EV, tech, and property stocks rebound amid hopes for ceasefire. (FXEmpire)
Policy: U.S. equities closed largely unchanged on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 at 0.0%, the Nasdaq Composite at +0.1%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average at -0.1%. The Federal Reserve held rates at 4.25%-4.50% and signaled possible rate cuts, forecasting 50 bps of cuts in 2025. Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned of potential tariff-driven inflation. The “dot plot” forecasts inflation at 3% in 2025, growth slowing to 1.4%, and unemployment rising to 4.5%. A fresh round of airstrikes occurred between Israel and Iran, with Israel targeting Iran’s Arak Nuclear Facility and Iran striking an Israeli hospital, causing civilian casualties. President Trump indicated potential U.S. involvement, while Iran warned of “irreparable damage.” Oil prices increased due to shipping-lane disruption fears. Markets are closed Thursday for the Juneteenth holiday. Upcoming economic reports include next week’s CPI and PCE reports. (FMP)
Policy: U.S. President Donald Trump endorsed the GENIUS Act, a newly approved Senate bill, on Wednesday aiming to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins. The GENIUS Act introduces reserve requirements for stablecoin issuers and mandates monthly disclosures of reserves. It seeks to enhance transparency and trust in digital dollar-pegged cryptocurrencies like Circle’s USDC and Tether’s USDT. Trump urged the Republican-controlled House to pass the bill “lightning fast” with “no delays, no add ons” to get it to his desk “ASAP.” (FMP)
Policy: President Donald Trump reignited his long-standing feud with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday, calling him “one of the dumbest, and most destructive, people in Government [sic]”. The comment on social media followed the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates steady, with the Federal Open Market Committee maintaining its target range at 4.25% to 4.5% – unchanged since December. (Forbes)
Policy: The European Investment Bank is likely to announce on Friday plans to pump 70 billion euros into the development of European technology firms over the next three years, EU officials said. (Reuters)
Policy: US President Donald Trump intensified his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday, calling for an extraordinary 2.5 percentage point interest rate cut and accusing the central bank chief of causing economic harm. In a series of posts on Truth Social, Trump lashed out at Powell, whom he appointed in 2017, calling him “one of the dumbest, and most destructive, people in Government. (Proactive Investors)
Policy: President Donald Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell after the central bank kept rates steady for a fourth time. Trump called Powell a “real dummy” in a late night Truth Social post. (CNBC)
Trade: Prime Minister Carney said the policy changes address ‘destabilization’ of metals sector due to U.S. trade policy. (WSJ)
Trade: OTTAWA–Canadian Prime Minster Mark Carney is expected to unveil on Thursday a plan to help the domestic steel sector, which is under duress due to President Trump’s 50% tariffs on imports of the metal, according to two people briefed on the matter. (Market Watch)
Industry
Automotive: German car manufacturers are likely to have incurred costs of around half a billion euros in April due to import tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump, the head of the VDA auto industry lobby group said an interview published on Friday. (Reuters)
Aviation: At the Paris Air Show, Airbus secured 148 firm orders valued at $14.2 billion and 102 provisional orders worth $6.7 billion, including a 10-jet deal with Starlux Airlines. Boeing announced no new orders. The Air India Flight 171 tragedy, which resulted in at least 270 fatalities, impacted Boeing’s presence. Analysts noted Boeing’s lack of orders was “not surprising” given recent Dreamliner crash and prior safety concerns. The show anticipates further order announcements and a focus on flight safety panels and certification updates, with potential influence from U.S. tariffs and Middle East tensions. (FMP)
Private Equity: Global private equity buyouts of corporate units, also known as carve-outs, have increased as corporations focus on balance sheets in an environment of shifting taxes, regulations and tariffs. Private equity asset and business unit acquisitions amounted to $23.72 billion across 145 deals between Jan. 1 and June 3, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. (Seeking Alpha)
Semiconductors: Taiwan equity’s strong performance in 2023 and 2024 was driven by explosive AI-driven demand. FTSE Taiwan’s valuation normalized to its 10y average level, while key indicators such as ROE and EPS growth, especially within the Tech industry, continue to reflect relatively strong fundamentals. (Seeking Alpha)
Corporate
Amazon: Amazon is requiring thousands of corporate employees to relocate to team hubs in Seattle, Arlington (VA), and Washington DC, communicated individually across multiple departments, potentially requiring cross-country moves. The mandate disproportionately affects mid-career professionals with families amid ongoing cost-cutting and automation concerns, following previous layoffs and warnings about AI reducing headcount. Amazon stock closed at $184.55, up +21.3% year-to-date (YTD) but flat over the past 5 sessions. (FMP)
Berkeley Group: News of a personnel change at the top has caused shares in housebuilder Berkeley Group to sink in end-of-week trading. (Forbes)
Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD): Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD), a biopharmaceutical company with a $134.3 billion market capitalization, currently trades at $108, with a recent trading range of $107.2 to $111.78 and a 52-week range of $64.86 to $119.96. On June 18, 2025, Morgan Stanley set a price target of $135 for Gilead, representing a potential 25% increase. This follows FDA approval of Yeztugo, and today’s trading volume is 11,816,865 shares. (FMP)
