Daily News Round Up
Tuesday, 10 Jun 2025
- Easing Recession Fears and Mixed Economic Data are Supporting Market Sentiment: Recent data suggests a declining expectation of a recession among CEOs, with less than 30% anticipating one in the next six months, down from over 60% in April. ((CNBC)) This positive shift, coupled with a rebound in US markets at the beginning of last week, is driving equity gains, despite ongoing mixed signals in the labor market and economic data.
- Inflation Expectations are Cooling, but Monitoring Remains Critical: Consumer expectations for slower inflation are improving, as indicated by recent surveys. ((PYMNTS), (PYMNTS)) However, investors are closely watching upcoming inflation reports and Treasury auction results, acknowledging this relief may be temporary and requiring vigilant monitoring of price pressures as the S&P 500 has rallied to 6,000. ((Finbold))
- The Federal Reserve is Expected to Delay Rate Cuts, Implying Continued Pressure on Valuations: The May jobs report, showing 139,000 jobs added and an unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%, has prompted Citi analysts to push their expectations for the first rate cut to September. ((FMP)) This suggests continued pressure on equity valuations, particularly for growth stocks sensitive to interest rate changes, and a potentially prolonged period of tighter monetary policy.
- U.S.-China Trade Discussions are Providing a Temporary Boost to Risk Assets: Progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations, including discussions on tariffs and chip export restrictions, has spurred optimism in Asian and U.S. markets. ((FMP), (FMP)) This positive sentiment lifted the S&P 500 as it surpassed 6,000, and particularly benefits technology and export-oriented sectors, although the truce on tariffs is temporary, extending only to August 12.
- AI Investment Continues to Surge, with Focus Shifting to Foundational Models: Companies like xAI are securing substantial funding ($5 billion debt package, potential $20 billion equity raise) to develop advanced AI capabilities, indicating continued investor enthusiasm for the sector. ((FMP)) Meanwhile, Apple is prioritizing AI integration within its ecosystem, emphasizing practicality and privacy, highlighting a shift toward foundational AI models. ((FMP)) This ongoing investment is likely to drive innovation and potentially reshape competitive landscapes across multiple industries.
What happened yesterday?
Macro
Economic Growth: Less than 30% of CEOs see either a mild or severe recession taking place over the next six months, per Chief Executive Group’s latest survey. That’s well below the more than 60% who sad the same in April as tariffs put businesses on high alert. (CNBC)
Economic Growth: As we head into the second half of the year, US markets seem to be turning around, with economic data that is still coming in mixed. The major US indices were up the first three days of last week, dipping on Thursday after weaker back-to-back readings of the US labor market. (See It Market)
Inflation: The news that consumers expect to see a slowdown in inflation is, arguably, optimistic. (PYMNTS)
Inflation: Consumers’ expectations about the direction of inflation broadly improved in May. (PYMNTS)
Inflation: Investors are waiting for a series of readings on U.S. price pressures, and two important auctions of Treasury debt. (Barrons)
Inflation: The stock market closed green last week as the S&P 500 hit the elusive 6,000 mark, driven by a broad rally following May nonfarm payroll (NFP) numbers, which showed 139,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate holding at 4.2%. (Finbold)
Interest Rates: The U.S. economy added 139,000 nonfarm payrolls in May, below the initial April print of 177,000 and revised April figures of 147,000. Federal employment fell by 22,000, a decline of 59,000 since January. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, and average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month-over-month. Revisions to March and April data erased a combined 65,000 jobs. Citi analysts now expect the Federal Reserve to delay its first rate cut to September, projecting rates to remain steady in June and July. Citi forecasts 25 basis point rate cuts in September and at every Fed meeting through March 2026, totaling 125 basis points of easing. (FMP)
Interest Rates: Fiscal worries and tariff uncertainty warrant bigger cash position (Market Watch)
International relations: Asian markets rose Tuesday due to optimism surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations and potential rollbacks of chip export restrictions. S&P 500 futures increased by 0.5% on Monday. High-level trade talks began in London on Monday and are continuing Tuesday, with President Trump indicating they “went well.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is empowered to negotiate easing restrictions on semiconductor exports. The Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 index climbed 0.2%, the Shanghai Composite rose 0.1%, and the Hang Seng also increased by 0.1%. Concerns remain ahead of Wednesday’s U.S. consumer inflation report. Technology and export-oriented sectors led gains. (FMP)
International relations: U.S. stocks rose Monday, with the S&P 500 up 0.1%, the NASDAQ Composite up 0.3%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average remaining flat. Citigroup raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 6300, and the index closed above 6000 for the first time since February 21. Trade discussions between the U.S. and China in London were described as “fruitful,” leading to a temporary shelving of President Trump’s proposed reciprocal tariffs until August 12. China’s export growth slowed to a 3-month low in May. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected later this week. (FMP)
International relations: U.S. stock futures declined on Monday, with Dow futures falling 46 points (-0.1%), S&P 500 futures slipping 6 points (-0.1%), and Nasdaq 100 futures dropping 39 points (-0.2%) as of 03:30 ET (07:30 GMT). Renewed U.S.-China trade talks are underway in London, focusing on tariffs, export controls, and rare earth mineral supply, with U.S. representation including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and China led by Vice Premier He Lifeng. “Reciprocal” tariffs imposed by President Trump are paused until August 12, following a truce reached in Geneva last month. Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) keynote is taking place today, expected to feature a new year-based OS naming convention (iOS 26 and beyond), design overhauls, and enhanced AI features under the Apple Intelligence brand, though a major Siri upgrade is reportedly delayed. (FMP)
International relations: Investors are showing interest in certain emerging markets in Latin America, Southeast Asia and India, which could potentially benefit from supply chain rearrangements influenced by changes in global trade dynamics. Emerging markets rebounded in May despite concerns that pending US tariffs might pressure their economies, especially for export-reliant countries. (Seeking Alpha)
International relations: Export curbs are at the top of the trade agenda (WSJ)
International relations: The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.3%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.1%. (WSJ)
International relations: So far this year international stocks are handily beating their U.S. counterparts. They still have room to run. (Barrons)
Labour: The most anticipated economic news for the week was the jobs numbers. At the headline level, job growth in the Establishment Survey was +139K which came in above the +126K consensus estimate. (Forbes)
Policy: Reverse stock splits, possibly indicating corporate distress, hit a 10-year-high in Q1 2025. The reverse-to-traditional split ratio also surged in Q1 2025. (Seeking Alpha)
Policy: There’s a real chance that newborn children in the US will begin receiving $1,000 in an investment account at birth if President Trump’s budget bill passes Congress in the months ahead. 1,000 invested in the S&P fifty years ago and not touched would be worth nearly $350,000 today. (Seeking Alpha)
Trade: Oil prices rose on Tuesday, fueled by U.S.-China trade talks in London and a favorable U.S. jobs report. Brent crude increased 0.3% to $67.26 per barrel, the highest level since April 28, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 0.3% to $65.47 per barrel as of 06:45 GMT. Discussions between top U.S. and Chinese officials involve tariffs, export controls, and rare earth supplies. Goldman Sachs analysts cited supply risks due to wildfires in Canada affecting North American oil output. Iran is preparing a counterproposal regarding a nuclear agreement, with President Trump signaling potential friction over Iran’s right to enrich uranium. (FMP)
Trade: Federal Reserve Bank of New York finds 75% of businesses facing tariff-induced cost increases are raising prices amid uncertainty about future tariff policies. (Fox Business)
Trade: Summer is a crucial transport time for retailers ahead of back-to-school season and the holidays. (Market Watch)
Trade: U.S. seaborne imports of goods from China dropped 28.5% year-over-year in May, the sharpest decline since the pandemic, as President Donald Trump’s 145% tariffs took hold, supply chain technology provider Descartes said on Monday. (Reuters)
Industry
Artificial Intelligence: Morgan Stanley is marketing a $5 billion debt package for xAI, Elon Musk’s AI startup. The package includes a floating-rate Term Loan B priced at SOFR + 700 basis points (97 cents on the dollar) and a mix of fixed-rate bonds and loans yielding up to 12%. This is a “best efforts” deal, avoiding underwriting obligations following the $13 billion in unsold loans from the 2022 Twitter acquisition. xAI is also pursuing a $20 billion equity raise, targeting a valuation between $120 billion and $200 billion. The financing occurs amidst rising political risk due to friction between Musk and Donald Trump, potentially impacting future federal contracts. (FMP)
Banking: Major Japanese lenders will likely make further investments in India’s financial sector after expanding aggressively in Southeast Asia and the US, seeking high-return investment opportunities beyond their mature home market. India’s economy, forecast to grow 6.2% in 2025 and 6.3% in 2026 as per the International Monetary Fund, has attracted investments from the Japanese megabanks into its nonbanking industry in recent years as the commercial banking sector remains strictly regulated. (Seeking Alpha)
Consumer Electronics: Laptop computer manufacturers and retailers have had to negotiate the uncertainties of US tariff policy, with the main upcoming event being a decision on Section 232 duties, potentially as soon as late June. At the retail level, firms are treating price rises as a ‘last resort’ and instead are looking to negotiate lower prices with suppliers. (Seeking Alpha)
Corporate
Amazon / Nvidia / Tesla Inc: Amazon hit a new buy point, while Nvidia rallied on the stock market today. Tesla declined on an analyst downgrade. (Investors Business Daily)
American Vanguard Corp: American Vanguard Corp. (AVD) reported a second-quarter Earnings Per Share (EPS) of -$0.30, missing the consensus estimate of -$0.01. Revenue was $115.8 million, below the expected $135 million. The stock currently trades at $4.86, with a 3-month change of +0.41% and a 12-month change of -50.40%. Over the past 90 days, EPS estimates have been revised both upwards and downwards. (FMP)
Apple Inc: At its WWDC on Monday, Apple introduced “Apple Intelligence,” a suite of AI-driven features emphasizing practicality, privacy, and incremental gains. The platform integrates features like live call translations, contextual suggestions, visual discovery tools, and text/image generation via OpenAI’s ChatGPT within the Image Playground app. Apple confirmed a strategic shift to open its on-device foundational model to third-party developers and will support both its own and OpenAI’s code completion tools. The company emphasized user consent and data privacy, ensuring ChatGPT integration won’t transmit data without permission. Despite criticism last year for falling behind in AI, Apple’s stock has remained stable amidst broader tech volatility, and the company is betting on AI that functions quietly in the background. (FMP)
Circle Internet: CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Monday examined Circle Internet, a stablecoin issuer that made a splash during its market debut last week, saying he’d wait to buy the stock until it has retreated from recent highs. “Circle Internet Group’s a solid company, but the stock, right now, has gotten too hot for me. (CNBC)
Comtech Telecommunications Corp: Comtech Telecommunications Corp. (NASDAQ: CMTL) reported a third-quarter loss per share of -$0.49, slightly exceeding the analyst estimate of -$0.497. Revenue reached $126.79 million, surpassing the consensus forecast of $124.13 million. The stock’s current price is $2.51, with a 3-month change of +32.80% and a 12-month change of +17.84%. Over the last 90 days, there has been 1 negative EPS revision and 0 upward revisions. (FMP)
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.: On June 9, 2025, Wedbush updated its rating for CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:CRWD) to Neutral, maintaining a hold action and a price of $469.22. The stock currently trades at $469.17, up 0.16% ($0.76) for the day, with a daily trading range of $458.13 to $471.77. Over the past year, CRWD has ranged from $200.81 to $491.20. Its market capitalization is approximately $116.94 billion, and the current trading volume is 1,389,748 shares. (FMP)
Meta Platforms: Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) is establishing a dedicated team, internally branded as the “superintelligence group,” led by CEO Mark Zuckerberg, to develop Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). This initiative signifies a strategic pivot towards core AI infrastructure, aiming to build systems capable of rivaling or surpassing human intelligence. The move positions Meta alongside companies like OpenAI, DeepMind, and Anthropic in a race with geopolitical and economic implications. Investor sentiment is currently favoring long-term bets on foundational AI models, and other tech giants like Microsoft, Google, and Apple are also increasing their AI investments. Regulatory scrutiny of AGI is growing globally. (FMP)
Moderna / Pfizer / BioNTech: Following a U.S. decision to replace all members of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), shares of vaccine makers declined on Monday: Moderna (MRNA) fell 1.2%, Pfizer (PFE) dropped 1%, and BioNTech (BNTX) eased 0.9%. The CDC aims to install a fresh, impartial panel to reinforce transparency in vaccine recommendations, addressing concerns raised by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. who characterized ACIP as a “rubber stamp.” Despite a potential disruption to the vaccine approval pipeline, pharmaceutical valuations remain at a premium compared to the broader market, reflecting defensive characteristics and robust earnings. Investors are advised to monitor CDC announcements, assess vaccine pipelines, and weigh the defensive qualities of leading vaccine stocks. (FMP)
Morgan Stanley / xAI: Morgan Stanley is marketing a $5 billion package of bonds and two loans on behalf of billionaire Elon Musk-owned xAI, at the same time as a falling out between the world’s richest man and the U.S. president plays out in public, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. (Reuters)
Oracle Corporation: Jefferies maintained a “Buy” grade for Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) on June 9, 2025, with a stock price target of $200. Oracle’s stock recently increased by 2.6%, trading at $178.47 and currently priced at $178.42, a 2.53% increase or $4.40 rise, fluctuating between $173.80 and $178.72 during the day. Over the past year, Oracle’s stock reached a high of $198.31 and a low of $118.86, with a market capitalization of approximately $500.33 billion. The trading volume was 6,496,557 shares. (FMP)
Plug Power Inc: On June 9, 2025, Paul B. Middleton, CFO of Plug Power (NASDAQ: PLUG), purchased 650,000 shares at an average price of $1.03 per share, bringing his total ownership to 2,558,064 shares. The stock is currently trading at approximately $1.09, a 12.51% increase ($0.12 change) from its previous value, with a daily high of $1.10 and low of $0.99. Over the past year, the stock has ranged from $3.34 to $0.69. Plug Power’s market capitalization is approximately $1.18 billion, and the trading volume is 58.9 million shares. (FMP)
Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW): Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) is a marketing company operating in over 45 countries and boasting a market capitalization of approximately $1.24 billion. CEO Mark Penn will host an AMA session on Reddit on June 12th to discuss the company’s growth and market position. Director Samaha Eli recently purchased 240,000 shares at $4.43 each, increasing his total ownership to 8,014,322 shares. Stagwell’s stock (STGW) is currently priced at $4.65, reflecting a 3.45% increase, with a daily trading range of $4.53 to $4.68 and a 52-week range of $4.03 to $8.18. The current trading volume is 858,496 shares. (FMP)
Tesla Inc: Baird analysts downgraded Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock to Neutral, causing a 1.8% drop in pre-market trading. The downgrade cites concerns about Tesla’s valuation outpacing its fundamentals and overly optimistic expectations for the June launch of a lower-cost vehicle and robotaxi service. Baird projects just 6,000 robotaxi units by the second half of next year, significantly less than Elon Musk’s promise of “hundreds of thousands.” Baird revised delivery forecasts to 377,000 units for Q2 2025 (versus a consensus of 404,800), 1.72 million units for FY2025 (versus 1.70 million), and 2.19 million units for FY2026 (versus 2.06 million), partially attributed to potential impacts from the removal of EV tax credits. Despite the downgrade, Baird maintains a long-term “core holding” view. (FMP)
Tesla Inc: Dow Jones and other indexes held steady as trade talks resumed on Monday between the U.S, and China, Tesla jumped ahead of robotaxi day. (Investors Business Daily)
TSMC: TSMC reported a 39.6% year-over-year rise in May revenue, reaching T$320.52 billion (approximately $10.71 billion). Year-to-date revenue is T$1.51 trillion, a 42.6% increase compared to the same period in 2024. Monthly revenue decreased by 8.3% from April’s record high. Despite export restrictions to China and tariff-related cost pressures, demand from AI hyperscalers like Meta, Microsoft, and Google continues to drive growth. TSMC’s CEO expects sustained AI momentum, and future performance will be closely watched, particularly during the upcoming Q2 earnings report, to assess the resilience of AI demand against trade barriers and macroeconomic headwinds. (FMP)
Uber Technologies Inc: Uber Technologies Inc. is acquiring Crown Taxi, one of Taiwan’s largest taxi operators, as part of a strategy to integrate traditional taxi networks into its app. The deal value is undisclosed and requires regulatory approval. This acquisition follows Uber’s earlier integration of Indian electric cab startup BluSmart into its platform in 2025. Year-to-date, Uber stock has gained nearly 38%. Uber continues to downplay the threat from robotaxis due to deployment complexity and regulatory hurdles, focusing on human-driven fleets. (FMP)
United Natural Foods, Inc.: Analysts project United Natural Foods, Inc. (UNFI) quarterly earnings per share (EPS) to reach $0.24, a rise from $0.10 in the same period last year. Revenue is expected to be approximately $7.79 billion, a 4.6% increase year-over-year from $7.5 billion. On Monday, UNFI shares dropped 8.1% to $25.59, exhibiting a price-to-sales ratio of 0.05 and an enterprise value to sales ratio of 0.16. The company’s debt-to-equity ratio is 2.29, and its current ratio is 1.45. UNFI is set to release its quarterly earnings on June 10, 2025. (FMP)
UnitedHealth Group (UNH): UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is selling its Latin American operations, having incurred over $8 billion in losses since 2022. The company is prioritizing the sale of Banmedica, its subsidiary in Chile and Colombia, and has received four non-binding bids around $1 billion. The exit plan has accelerated under new CEO Steve Hemsley, who took over in May, following a disappointing earnings miss, a Wall Street Journal report alleging a criminal probe into potential Medicare fraud, the murder of CEO Brian Thompson in late 2024, and the departure of CEO Andrew Witty who held the position since 2021. UnitedHealth states it has not been notified by the Department of Justice. (FMP)
Walmart Inc: KeyBanc increased its price target for Walmart (NYSE:WMT) to $110 from $105, maintaining an Overweight rating, after attending Walmart’s annual meeting in Bentonville, Arkansas. Analysts are confident in Walmart’s ability to expand market share due to accelerating e-commerce and advertising operations and anticipate operating profit growth outpacing revenue growth. The firm views Walmart’s digital segment as having “flywheel” dynamics and considers it a resilient retailer capable of withstanding potential consumer pressure from incoming tariffs. (FMP)
