Daily News Round Up
Tuesday, 29 Apr 2025
- Trade tensions and tariff adjustments are dominating market sentiment. Multiple reports indicate ongoing trade negotiations, with President Trump announcing measures to soften the impact of auto tariffs. While easing some immediate fears, underlying uncertainty remains, impacting corporate guidance (GM, Adidas, Porsche, Electrolux) and prompting cautious optimism rather than full-blown bullishness, particularly for cyclical sectors.
- Economic growth prospects are mixed, fueling market volatility. Conflicting signals emerge from economic indicators and expert commentary. While some data (potential US-India trade agreement, continued job growth) suggest resilience, concerns regarding a potential recession, mirroring historical patterns (1930s, 2008), and weakening global demand (Eurozone business sentiment, Chinese stimulus silence) are prominent, leading to cautious positioning by investors (JPMorgan, Keith Lerner).
- Corporate earnings are a key focus, with tariffs impacting forward guidance. The beginning of the Q1 earnings season is underway, and early reports demonstrate the impact of trade policies, particularly tariffs, on company performance (GM, Whirlpool, Shein, BP). Several companies are revising guidance downwards, creating anxiety ahead of earnings releases from major tech firms (“Magnificent Seven”).
- Tech sector performance remains a bright spot, but faces headwinds. Despite broader economic concerns, the tech sector has displayed relative strength, with Amazon’s Kuiper project launch and Alibaba’s AI advancements generating positive attention. However, exposure to trade conflicts adds a layer of risk, making earnings results from Apple, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon crucial indicators for market direction.
- Market volatility is moderating, but remains elevated. Implied volatilities have decreased, suggesting a temporary easing of risk aversion, yet investors remain wary. Insider activity (QCR Holdings CEO purchase) and hedge fund re-allocation towards bank stocks signal tentative confidence, but concerns about upcoming economic data releases and geopolitical developments continue to weigh on overall sentiment.
What happened yesterday?
Macro
Consumer Expectations: Trump’s first months in office have seen the steepest drop in consumer expectations since the 1990 recession (Market Watch)
Crude Oil Prices: Oil is now hovering around $66 a barrel, prompting analysts to model scenarios where prices remain in the $60s this year or even decline into the $50s. (Fox Business)
Economic Growth: As recession fears reverberate from Washington to Wall Street, Wednesday will bring the most comprehensive yardstick yet of the health of the U.S. economy when the government releases the first estimate of the country’s gross domestic product over the first three months of 2025. (Forbes)
Economic Growth: CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Monday explained why he thinks there could be too much pessimism floating around Wall Street. It’s possible that continued job growth, among other factors, might ward off a recession, he said. (CNBC)
Economic Growth: Dual-axis charts are misleading for predicting market behavior; price action analysis and regime classification offer better insights. Current market dynamics resemble 2008, but future paths depend on central bank actions, government policies, and economic growth. (Seeking Alpha)
Economic History: Prof. Steve Hanke warns that current market and trade conditions mirror those before the 1930s Great Depression. He cites protectionism, poor monetary policy, and weak leadership as major risks. (Finbold)
Global Markets: Early in Europe, U.S. stock futures were up, stock markets in Asia closed higher and the dollar and Treasury yields steadied. Most European markets opened higher. (WSJ)
Inflation: President Donald Trump has notched the first 100 days of his second term, putting a spotlight on how inflation and other key issues have fared under his first few months in office. (Fox Business)
International relations: Most major Asian stock markets advanced on Tuesday, buoyed by optimism across the automotive sector after the U.S. government moved to soften the impact of its automotive tariffs. However, mainland Chinese equities diverged from the regional rally, slipping slightly as Beijing refrained from announcing fresh stimulus. (FMP)
International relations: U.S. stocks ended higher on Friday, rounding out a strong week as investors assessed ongoing developments in global trade and saw renewed strength in major tech shares. (FMP)
International relations: Last week, the S&P 500 rose as easing trade tensions and a temporary truce in U.S. political disputes lifted investor sentiment. Sevens Report highlighted four primary catalysts: (FMP)
International relations: Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have poured approximately $4.11 billion into Indian equities over the past nine trading sessions, marking their longest buying spree since July 2023. Optimism around a potential U.S.–India trade agreement, combined with India’s status as the fastest-growing large economy in FY 2026, underpinned the rally in the Nifty 50, which climbed 6.6% over the period. (FMP)
International relations: As global markets grapple with the aftershocks of U.S. tariffs, this week’s calendar is stacked with high-impact events — from mega-cap tech earnings to central bank decisions and political elections. (FMP)
International relations: The ongoing trade dispute between the U.S. and China has taken a fresh toll on the global aviation industry, with Boeing Co. (NYSE:BA) and Chinese airlines emerging as key casualties. (FMP)
International relations: The overvalued dollar has benefits for Americans, but also costs. A true global currency might be the answer. (Market Watch)
International relations: Tariff revenue so far falls short of president’s number, Congress returns with tax-cut bill as its top agenda item, and more news to start your day. (Barrons)
International relations: What matters in U.S. and global markets today (Reuters)
International relations: The economy surged as U.S. pharmaceutical giants based in the country boosted production to build stockpiles back home ahead of threatened tariffs. (WSJ)
International relations: The services, industrial and construction sectors all saw worsening sentiment compared with March, as did consumer confidence. (WSJ)
International relations: Lending growth to euro zone businesses continued to accelerate in March, indicating that a series of interest rate cuts was bolstering activity before the United States launched a global trade war, European Central Bank data showed on Tuesday. (Reuters)
International relations: Closer cooperation between countries that favor trade openness is needed to avoid worse outcomes for the global economy according to the senior official at the European Central Bank. (WSJ)
International relations: DAX rises on tariff easing hopes but faces pressure from weak auto stocks and rising US recession risks. Near-term forecast hinges on data and trade news. (FXEmpire)
International relations: Donald Trump has been back in the Oval Office for just a few months, but for his supporters – and critics – there have been plenty of historic moments to pore over. (Skynews)
International relations: President Donald Trump will soon announce moves to reduce the impact of his tariffs on the U.S. auto industry, an official confirmed late Monday. (Market Watch)
International relations: Roles have reversed as the U.S. stock market turns in a dismal performance this year while international equities are a bright spot. (Barrons)
International relations: Two Trump administration sources told FOX Business that the president is working on larger trade deals with countries, not ones just involving tariffs. (Fox Business)
International relations: The week ahead is set to bring a deluge of economic data that has the potential to come in far below expectations and rattle financial-market participants, who have already been through weeks of tariff-driven volatility. (Market Watch)
Labour: The April 2025 non-farm payrolls are expected to show slowed job growth at 150,000, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%. Tariffs imposed by President Trump are likely to hurt corporate hiring, especially in the auto sector, despite a temporary boost in auto dealer jobs. (Seeking Alpha)
Market Sentiment: Keith Lerner of Truist Advisory Services says the S&P 500’s upside is limited to 5% near-term, but the downside could be 10%. (Market Watch)
Market Sentiment: Implied volatilities fell across asset classes last week as risk assets rebounded. SPX convexity premium (VIX minus SPX 1M ATM vol) came in further last week, ending the week at just 3.4 pts. (Seeking Alpha)
Market Sentiment: The S&P 500 may be in for below-average returns for a presidential term based on historical patterns. (Barrons)
Market Sentiment: The Dow Jones Industrial Average overcame a midday swoon to close higher for a fifth straight session on Monday, extending a relief rally underpinned by optimism that trade deals are in the offing. (WSJ)
Market Sentiment: U.S. stocks are drifting Monday ahead of potential flashpoints looming later in the week that could bring more sharp swings for financial markets. (Fast Company)
Market Sentiment: The S&P 500, the Nasdaq , and the Dow are coming off a good week. In no small part, it was becauseo of the president. (Barrons)
Retirement Savings: The first 100 days of Trump’s second term show how diversification can benefit your 401(k). (Market Watch)
Trade: U.S. stock markets posted modest moves on Monday, as investors weighed cautious optimism on trade talks and prepared for a heavy week of earnings reports from America’s largest corporations. (FMP)
Trade: Stocks may present buying opportunities in the second half (2H) of 2025, according to JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka, although he remains cautious for now due to ongoing macro risks, weak economic data, and uncertainty surrounding trade policy. In his latest strategy note, Matejka emphasized that a more bullish stance will only materialize once certain conditions are met. (FMP)
Trade: President Trump will prevent his new 25% auto tariffs on finished vehicles and parts from stacking with existing steel and aluminum duties. Automakers will also be reimbursed retroactively for duties already paid, capped at 3.75% of a vehicle’s value for one year. (FMP)
Trade: The planned concessions to give automakers more time to relocate production to the United States would still leave substantial tariffs on imported cars and car parts. (NYTimes)
Trade: President Donald Trump’s administration will move to reduce the impact of his automotive tariffs on Tuesday by alleviating some duties placed on foreign parts in domestically manufactured cars and keeping tariffs on cars made abroad from stacking on top of other ones, officials said. (Reuters)
Trade: For several consumer-facing companies, the best thing that can be said is that households are cautious, or rather outright fearful, with tariffs as the catalyst. Many of these firms have been cautious as well, at least in the Wall Street give-and-take of offering guidance. (PYMNTS)
Trade: Investors should keep their expectations in check. Sectoral tariffs are a risk. (Barrons)
Trade: U.S. consumers could start to notice trade-related shortages in their local stores next month, according to Apollo. (CNBC)
Industry
Automotive: General Motors and Volvo Cars abandoned their guidance, Adidas warned of price hikes and Porsche and Electrolux cut their full-year outlooks on Tuesday as U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war continued to send shivers through the corporate world. (Reuters)
Automotive: Companies paying Trump’s car tariffs won’t also be charged for other levies. (WSJ)
Biofuels: Finnish biofuel maker and oil refiner Neste expects U.S. tariffs will only have a limited impact on its business, it said on Tuesday, but warned of continuous oversupply in renewable fuel and market volatility. (Reuters)
Energy: AI power needs are advancing, with specific training runs potentially reaching 2GW by 2027, necessitating significant infrastructure and energy investments. Natural gas demand is projected to grow, driven by digital infrastructure, LNG and onshoring trends, with a market estimate of 128-130 bcf by 2030. (Seeking Alpha)
Gold Mining: JPMorgan has reiterated its bullish outlook on the Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) gold mining sector, projecting as much as 60–90% upside for leading miners if gold reaches $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026. (FMP)
Retail: The e-commerce company Shein, which was founded in China, rolled out U.S. price increases on a broad range of items starting Friday, Bloomberg reported. (Fox Business)
Corporate
Alibaba Inc: Chinese tech giant Alibaba Group (NYSE:BABA) on Tuesday rolled out Qwen 3, its latest flagship AI model featuring advanced hybrid reasoning capabilities. By blending conventional large-language processing with dynamic inference layers, Qwen 3 aims to deliver more context-aware responses and programmatic adaptability—key for enterprises building sophisticated AI-driven applications. (FMP)
Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN): Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) successfully deployed its first 27 operational satellites for Project Kuiper on Monday, marking its formal entry into the satellite internet sector long dominated by SpaceX’s Starlink. The satellites lifted off aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket from Cape Canaveral, Florida, and were inserted into low Earth orbit to begin system validation and network trials. (FMP)
Apple Inc / Alphabet Inc / Amazon Inc / Microsoft Corp / Meta Platforms Inc / Nvidia Corp / Tesla Inc: The tech-heavy Nasdaq index was trading more than 200 points lower on Monday as Wall Street anxiously awaited word on how President Trump’s tariff war has impacted “Magnificent Seven” firms set to report earnings this week. (New York Post)
BP: BP reported an underlying replacement cost profit of $1.38 billion for Q1, missing analyst expectations of $1.53 billion. Upstream earnings bore the brunt of softer oil realizations, while downstream refining and marketing margins stayed relatively stable. (FMP)
Brown & Brown (NYSE:BRO): Brown & Brown (NYSE:BRO) reported a 13% increase in first-quarter net profit, with earnings rising to $331 million ($1.15 per share) from $293 million ($1.02 per share) a year earlier. The jump was driven by a 12% rise in commissions and fees, which reached $1.39 billion, as businesses and consumers ramped up insurance purchases amid heightened cyber-risk and natural disaster concerns. (FMP)
General Motors: General Motors also said its profit in the first three months of the year fell 7 percent from a year earlier. (NYTimes)
GM / Ford / Stellantis: President Trump is expected to announce tariff relief for automakers, potentially lowering costs and boosting auto stocks like GM, Ford, and Stellantis. Okta will join the S&P MidCap 400, replacing Berry Global Group, which is being acquired by Amcor. (Seeking Alpha)
Goldman Sachs: Hedge funds returned into markets last week to buy bank stocks having sold out of positions for eight straight weeks, a Goldman Sachs note shows. (Reuters)
LATAM Airlines: LATAM Airlines (NYSE:LTM) on Monday increased its full-year EBITDAR outlook to $3.4–3.75 billion, up from the prior $3.25–3.6 billion range, driven by robust first-quarter performance and sustained passenger demand. At the same time, management raised its ASK forecast to +7.5–9.5% YoY, versus 7–9% previously, despite trimming full-year revenue guidance to $13.8–14.2 billion from $14–14.5 billion. (FMP)
Market Sentiment: The first-quarter earnings season is heating up—both in tempo and the numbers themselves. (Investopedia)
Meta / Microsoft / Apple / Amazon: Big Tech companies report earnings this week in a very different climate from last quarter. Tariffs and uncertainty are setting the mood for Meta, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon. (Business Insider)
QCR Holdings, Inc: QCR Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:QCRH) is a prominent player in the financial services sector, offering a comprehensive suite of commercial and consumer banking services. Competing with other regional banks and financial institutions, QCRH stands out through its strategic operations and leadership. On April 28, 2025, the company’s director and CEO, Larry J. Helling, made a significant move by purchasing 1,000 shares of QCRH’s Common Stock at approximately $64.53 each. (FMP)
Tesla Inc: Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) made a significant announcement on Monday evening, confirming that it will start producing its highly anticipated Semi trucks by the end of 2025 at its Nevada Gigafactory. After years of promises and delays, this marks a key milestone in the company’s journey to expand its offerings beyond the core consumer electric vehicle (EV) market. (FMP)
Whirlpool Corp: Whirlpool Corp (NYSE: WHR) has launched a process to sell a 31% stake in its listed Indian arm, Whirlpool of India Ltd (NSE: WHIR), targeting $550–600 million in proceeds while retaining a 20% interest. The Indian unit drives 85% of Whirlpool’s Asia revenue, highlighting its central role in the company’s growth strategy. (FMP)
X: A group of banks including Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Barclays and Mitsubishi UFJ sold the final piece of debt tied to billionaire Elon Musk’s $44 billion buyout of social media platform Twitter, now called X, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday, citing people familiar with the matter. (Reuters)
X / Twitter: A consortium led by Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Barclays and Mitsubishi UFJ has sold the last $1.2 billion of loans tied to Elon Musk’s $44 billion takeover of Twitter—now X—at 98 cents on the dollar, yielding 9.5%. The move clears nearly all of the $13 billion in debt these banks held since funding the buyout. (FMP)
X / Twitter: The loans sat on banks’ books for two-and-a-half years until the election of Donald Trump rapidly changed the company’s fortunes. (WSJ)
